Re solar/lunar gravitational forces with respect to earthquakes: The gravitational effects on earth caused by the Sun and the Moon are approximately equal since the moon, although much smaller, is much closer, and the gravitational force of the massive sun is dispersed by the square of the distance from earth. This is why we have approximately equal gravitational tides when the sun/moon angle is near 90 degrees. In conjunction (new moon) the forces add, but an equal tidal force is seen on the opposite side of the earth because of the conservation of rotational momentum. At opposition (full moon) the gravitational amplitudes are maximum. The stress in the earths' crust results in strain and tilts of the order of 10^-7, and are so predictable that routine calculations of them are used to calibrate broadband instruments. Over the years many efforts have been made to correlate earthquake occurrence or make predictions based on the lunar/solar forces. Some slight statistical correlation was found with small events on faults optimally oriented in strike and dip to experience the forces. However, the forces are quite small compared to the stress in the crust caused by barometric fronts during storms, and as far as I know, no one has predicted a quake because of a thunderstorm. And of course, there is very limited data about the state of stress of a fault zone, which can range from "locked up" to being on the edge of rupture, based on the interplay of local and regional tectonic structures and other fault zone variables, such as hydrology. However, from an operational point of view, I have found that the probability of earthquake occurrence is directly related to how broken or inoperable the seismic instrumentation to record it is. Regards, Sean-Thomas __________________________________________________________ Public Seismic Network Mailing List (PSN-L)
Larry Cochrane <cochrane@..............>