Given the difficulty of the problem and the lack of success so far,
predictions (particularly those which are based on new and untried
principles) should be made in a manner which indicates that the predictor
accepts the burden of proof.  It is not up to the rest of us to convince
Mr. R.SHANMUGASUNDARAM  why we don't believe him.  Rather it is up to him
to convince us why his new approach is a better way to view the problem and
why it improves the probability of successful prediction.  Nothing he has
done so far addresses this issue.  I would encourage him to stop making
predictions and explain his theories in sufficient detail to allow others
to replicate his results.

While I'm happy to keep an open mind, I'm willing to risk missing the
breakthrough of the century unless the predictions are made in a scientific
manner.  Anything else belongs on alt.voodoo.

Regards, Ted


Larry Cochrane @.............. on 09/17/2000
03:18:41 PM

Please respond to psn-l@..............

Sent by:  psn-l-request@..............


To:   psn-l@..............
cc:
Subject:  Earthquake prediction messages



All,

I just sent an email asking the person who is sending the earthquake
"predictions"  messages too stop posting to our list. In my opinion, and
others, these message are off topic.

Having said that, and trying to keep an open mind about predicting
earthquakes,  I don't want to totally stop all prediction posts. If someone
comes up with some equipment or away of making accurate predictions, I for
one would like to hear about it since I live near large active faults! I
just don't think earthquakes are predictable, so I'm not holding my breath
for this to happen.

If someone is going to make a prediction it has to be as precises as
possible with a location, time frame and magnitude range. All three
parameters must be met before the prediction can be considered a "hit". If
the predictor predicts a magnitude 5 and a magnitude 2.5 happens in the
time frame and location that doesn't count etc...

Regards,
Larry Cochrane
Redwood City, PSN

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