Hi, Good remarks all around. It is important to distinguish between
science and the views of individuals. I for one monitor the ULF
background radiation and on occasions have found some remarkable
coincidences between large quakes and activity on this wave band.
It has been reported by some researchers that there can be an increase 
in the ULF-ELF background prior to quakes. What concerns me, how
does the PSN community views my occasional postings to event list
with some interesting ULF data.

For example, today I have posted to files (000916a.au2, 000916a.au4)
one file is a local quake and the other is the ULF - ELF background 
over the same time period. The observable pluses in the ULF - ELF
data would appear to be related to the solar activity and its influence
on our magnetic field. But what is very interesting is the quake occurred 
at the same time as the magnet pulse. From this, maybe, one can conclude 
that a quake can be triggered by a change in the magnetic field. If this 
is true then  this a an interesting find. By the way there is another local
quake today, that occurred during a magnetic storm ?

From what I have observed in the ULF record, it would appear that on some
occasions there are ULF (magnetic) emanations from some big quakes. Generally
deeper than 33 km. As for shallow quakes, nothing has been recorded. 

This type of research, in my option is worth doing but it can be easily tarnished
by the "prediction" people. Though I don't totally dismiss there claims, It is
known that ELF- ULF (magnetic) field variations can in be perceived by individuals.
It may be one some level that some rare people perceive something and animals may
also perceive the ULF - ELF (magnetic) background. Remember many creatures use the
earth magnetic field to navigate. 

So the question is, what is acceptable to the PSN community?  Difficult question.
The local ULF background may one day give an indication that something is going on, but
in my opinion would not give a location of a  quake or even its exact time.

Cheers

Arie



>steve hammond wrote:
> 
> Hi Larry, thanks for the intervention. I support your comments.
> 
> FYI, the PSN has had two encounters with predictions in the past. Both
> resulted in the group being cast into the position where we had to defend
> our groups intentions including it's internal communications. One incident
> involved Jack Cole who got the news media in a "news story feeding frenzy"
> after Jack reported he could predict earthquakes when his stereo speakers
> popped and crackled and the other was a fellow that posted information about
> the AEC drilling tunnels along the fault lines to test atomic weapons,
> predicting the testing would continue. Each time there was an earthquake,
> that guy would claim it was another AEC test along the Hayward or SA fault.
> 
> Let me get to the point. As a group the routinely reaches out to help
> schools, libraries, and children's museums, one of the things we forget to
> consider is that several young kids read our comments because they have an
> interest in learning about earthquakes. Most don't know how to extract the
> fact from the not so factual information being presented. Let me relate a
> true story to you. After one of Jack Cole's predictions, predicting a great
> earthquake in the San Francisco Bay area, a nine year old that lived across
> the street showed up at my door. She knew I recorded earthquakes and wanted
> to know what I thought. She was frightened, having lost a lot of sleep over
> Jack's predications. We talked on the front step for awhile and after she
> left she brought back three other kids from the block. I repeated the same
> lecture on earthquakes, plate tectonics, and earthquake frequency along any
> given fault line. Larry, you might remember this story because you were a
> part of the discussion that ensued.
> 
> We talked it around in the group and came up with a plan. 1) Only God and
> the State Board of Emergency Services was allowed to make earthquake
> predictions that included the PSN. 2) Any real prediction would have the
> exact time, place, depth, and size and be supported by accepted scientific
> evidence. For example, if you look at the Parkfield prediction done by Al
> Lynd at the USGS, it contains each of these components and is supported by
> scientific study. I for one still feel that the Parkfield event will occur
> and what I would really like to know is why it has not in the given time
> frame.
> 
> I view this new current round of predictions as being more theatrical in
> nature and a grab for the spotlight because of the way they have been
> presented. I don't feel the predictions are supported by scientific evidence
> and therefor are premature until a hypothesis has been clearly stated and
> proven statistically to be valid.  I think a good spot for these predictions
> would be on Canie's site. Thanks Canie-- Because there, they will be posted
> in a context that is of a predictive nature and understood to be outside the
> current bounds of seismology and the construction and operation of home
> built seismographs.
> 
> Regards, Steve Hammond   PSN San Jose
> Aptos, California
> 
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Canie 
> To: psn-l@.............. 
> Date: Sunday, September 17, 2000 3:37 PM
> Subject: Re: Earthquake prediction messages
> 
> >Hi Larry,
> >
> >I host a web site that is dedicated to the sort of quake prediction posts
> >that are being made to the list.
> >
> >We limit who we allow to post due to obvious abusive communications that
> >are possible on this subject, therefore people need to register prior to
> >posting - its a one time registration and all e-mail addresses are kept
> >confidential.
> >
> >Alan Jones is also one of our readers/posters who evaluated predictions.
> >
> >Anyone interested in posting their predictions should go to this site and
> >register:
> >http://www.earthwaves.org/wwwboard/wwwboard.html
> >
> >Canie
> >
> >At 12:18 PM 9/17/00 -0700, Larry Cochrane wrote:
> >>All,
> >>
> >>I just sent an email asking the person who is sending the earthquake
> >>"predictions"  messages too stop posting to our list. In my opinion, and
> >>others, these message are off topic.
> >>
> >>Having said that, and trying to keep an open mind about predicting
> >>earthquakes,  I don't want to totally stop all prediction posts. If
> someone
> >>comes up with some equipment or away of making accurate predictions, I for
> >>one would like to hear about it since I live near large active faults! I
> >>just don't think earthquakes are predictable, so I'm not holding my breath
> >>for this to happen.
> >>
> >>If someone is going to make a prediction it has to be as precises as
> >>possible with a location, time frame and magnitude range. All three
> >>parameters must be met before the prediction can be considered a "hit". If
> >>the predictor predicts a magnitude 5 and a magnitude 2.5 happens in the
> >>time frame and location that doesn't count etc...
> >>
> >>Regards,
> >>Larry Cochrane
> >>Redwood City, PSN
> >>
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> >
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> 
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