Larry Cochrane wrote: > > All, > > I just sent an email asking the person who is sending the earthquake > "predictions" messages too stop posting to our list. In my opinion, and > others, these message are off topic. .... Some fun folklore about recent attempts at earthquake predictions. 1973 In 1973 I attended a meeting conducted by the San Jose, California city geologist who was attempting to correlate inches of lost&found advertisements for lost animals in various newspapers with earthquake reports. Trying to see if cats and dogs left home (got lost) more often before earthquakes. (current folklore) He reported that the powers in U.S.G.S. (United States Geological Survey) demanded that at least the following (dimly remembered) conditions be satisfied to be a successful earthquake prediction. Location - within 5 kilometers Time - within 6 hours Magnitude - within 0.5 Richter and also some other conditions eliminating major earthquake aftershocks. And of course some repeatability and few misses or errors. 1975 About 1975, there was a quite well publicized investigation based from ?Stanford University? ?USGS? asking people to phone if their animal * was currently * acting odd. They were not interest in after the earthquake reports of odd actions. I understand the correlation between calls and earthquakes was no better than expected statistical coincidence. More recently - observing Radon and/or Helium escaping from water wells & also water level in water wells. - observing very low frequency magnetic effects OH, and the famous Palmdale Bulge/Parkfield event -- the earthquake that cerainly did not go as predicted, (I believe we have been waiting for it for a decade). ---------------------------- Being a bit of a wild hair, I think that we owe a strained thanks to the poor souls whose predictions have been so troubled. They help remind us that even with: - wonderfully improving instruments, instrument networks and data networks, - serious studies of earth strains with ever improving equipment, accuracy, ease and sophistication - serious studies of earth materials at high pressures and stresses - the ever improving computer based modeling, displays, storage, processing, analyzing, ... - ... we humans seem no closer to useful earthquake predictions. ------------------------------------ So, we have heard this guy out, and understand his game. Time for a break. Best Regards Ed Thelen __________________________________________________________ Public Seismic Network Mailing List (PSN-L)
Larry Cochrane <cochrane@..............>