PSN-L Email List Message

Subject: Re: Earthquake prediction messages
From: "Robert W. Avakian" ravakian@............
Date: Sun, 17 Sep 2000 22:30:19 -0500


And where do we discuss and counter predictions such as the ones that
caused schools to be shut down in the New Madrid area several years ago? 

As an educator I'd rather see predictions and predicting individuals on
this site where we can politely (hint, hint) discuss and debunk their
ideas if necessary. I have had time to just barely skim Canie's site,
(and it looks quite well done and interesting), but I didn't see an
obvious place to go for critical analysis of the ideas on the site.

What better way to communicate an accurate picture to educators and
students than to confront the claims and show them being analized and
evaluated by the experienced professional talent we have on PSN?  Who
better to evaluate these claims?  Unless I miss my guess, the number of
prediction posts has not been excessive so far,  Let's use the CSICOP
model and deal with the occasional problem instead of ignoring it.  If
after being suitable evaluated, individuals insist on intruding their
ideas oupn the list, we can then restrict their access

Oh, and let's be polite out there.  I teach my students that ad hominum
attacks ("If you don't understand that simple principle then you must be
as stupid as a ..."), or claims of persecution (The car manufactures and
Oil companies are supressing my 100 mile per gallon carburator because
....")usually indicate either dogmatism or logically weak arguments.

Thanks for everyone's time.

Bob Avakian  


investigate  steve hammond wrote:
> 
> Hi Larry, thanks for the intervention. I support your comments.
> 
> FYI, the PSN has had two encounters with predictions in the past. Both
> resulted in the group being cast into the position where we had to defend
> our groups intentions including it's internal communications. One incident
> involved Jack Cole who got the news media in a "news story feeding frenzy"
> after Jack reported he could predict earthquakes when his stereo speakers
> popped and crackled and the other was a fellow that posted information about
> the AEC drilling tunnels along the fault lines to test atomic weapons,
> predicting the testing would continue. Each time there was an earthquake,
> that guy would claim it was another AEC test along the Hayward or SA fault.
> 
> Let me get to the point. As a group the routinely reaches out to help
> schools, libraries, and children's museums, one of the things we forget to
> consider is that several young kids read our comments because they have an
> interest in learning about earthquakes. Most don't know how to extract the
> fact from the not so factual information being presented. Let me relate a
> true story to you. After one of Jack Cole's predictions, predicting a great
> earthquake in the San Francisco Bay area, a nine year old that lived across
> the street showed up at my door. She knew I recorded earthquakes and wanted
> to know what I thought. She was frightened, having lost a lot of sleep over
> Jack's predications. We talked on the front step for awhile and after she
> left she brought back three other kids from the block. I repeated the same
> lecture on earthquakes, plate tectonics, and earthquake frequency along any
> given fault line. Larry, you might remember this story because you were a
> part of the discussion that ensued.
> 
> We talked it around in the group and came up with a plan. 1) Only God and
> the State Board of Emergency Services was allowed to make earthquake
> predictions that included the PSN. 2) Any real prediction would have the
> exact time, place, depth, and size and be supported by accepted scientific
> evidence. For example, if you look at the Parkfield prediction done by Al
> Lynd at the USGS, it contains each of these components and is supported by
> scientific study. I for one still feel that the Parkfield event will occur
> and what I would really like to know is why it has not in the given time
> frame.
> 
> I view this new current round of predictions as being more theatrical in
> nature and a grab for the spotlight because of the way they have been
> presented. I don't feel the predictions are supported by scientific evidence
> and therefor are premature until a hypothesis has been clearly stated and
> proven statistically to be valid.  I think a good spot for these predictions
> would be on Canie's site. Thanks Canie-- Because there, they will be posted
> in a context that is of a predictive nature and understood to be outside the
> current bounds of seismology and the construction and operation of home
> built seismographs.
> 
> Regards, Steve Hammond   PSN San Jose
> Aptos, California
> 
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Canie 
> To: psn-l@.............. 
> Date: Sunday, September 17, 2000 3:37 PM
> Subject: Re: Earthquake prediction messages
> 
> >Hi Larry,
> >
> >I host a web site that is dedicated to the sort of quake prediction posts
> >that are being made to the list.
> >
> >We limit who we allow to post due to obvious abusive communications that
> >are possible on this subject, therefore people need to register prior to
> >posting - its a one time registration and all e-mail addresses are kept
> >confidential.
> >
> >Alan Jones is also one of our readers/posters who evaluated predictions.
> >
> >Anyone interested in posting their predictions should go to this site and
> >register:
> >http://www.earthwaves.org/wwwboard/wwwboard.html
> >
> >Canie
> >
> >At 12:18 PM 9/17/00 -0700, Larry Cochrane wrote:
> >>All,
> >>
> >>I just sent an email asking the person who is sending the earthquake
> >>"predictions"  messages too stop posting to our list. In my opinion, and
> >>others, these message are off topic.
> >>
> >>Having said that, and trying to keep an open mind about predicting
> >>earthquakes,  I don't want to totally stop all prediction posts. If
> someone
> >>comes up with some equipment or away of making accurate predictions, I for
> >>one would like to hear about it since I live near large active faults! I
> >>just don't think earthquakes are predictable, so I'm not holding my breath
> >>for this to happen.
> >>
> >>If someone is going to make a prediction it has to be as precises as
> >>possible with a location, time frame and magnitude range. All three
> >>parameters must be met before the prediction can be considered a "hit". If
> >>the predictor predicts a magnitude 5 and a magnitude 2.5 happens in the
> >>time frame and location that doesn't count etc...
> >>
> >>Regards,
> >>Larry Cochrane
> >>Redwood City, PSN
> >>
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> >>
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> >
> >__________________________________________________________
> >
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> >
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> 
> __________________________________________________________
> 
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Larry Cochrane <cochrane@..............>