In a message dated 2007/04/20, tchannel@.............. writes:

> Just curious about the subject of Earthquake Predictions. But on a serious 
> note, are there any scientific tools used? Do the phases of the moon and the 
> tides play a part? I have asked this question to several people and received 
> just as many opinions.

Hi Ted,

       Type Earthquake Prediction into Google?
       See 
http://www.nature.com/nature/debates/earthquake/equake_frameset.html

       Short answer is that we don't know. Strong quakes may be associated 
with parts of the tide cycle. The question is which cycle? The local background 
noise may decrease before a large quake. There may be physical movement before 
shallower quakes, but you are unlikely to get much observable effect at the 
surface if the rupture is 100 km down. About 1/3 of quakes show precursor 
quakes. There may be a few cycles of very long period precursor. There may be 
changes in the water table, changes in Radon emission, electric / RF field noise, 
animals seem to be able to sense 'something'..... 
       One thing is certain. If you say we will never be able to predict 
quakes and no funds to experiment are allocated, we WON'T develop the / any 
ability!! Even if we could only get timely warning for a few quake locations / 
depths, the benefits could be very significant. A lot of the severe quakes are 
associated with subduction zones, like those off the west coast of the Americas, 
but the interval may be hundreds of years.
 
       Regards,

       Chris Chapman   
In a me=
ssage dated 2007/04/20, tchannel@.............. writes:



Just curious about the subject=20=
of Earthquake Predictions. But on a serious note, are there any scientific t=
ools used? Do the phases of the moon and the tides play a part? I have asked=
 this question to several people and received just as many opinions.<=
FONT  COLOR=3D"#000000" BACK=3D"#ffffff" style=3D"BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffffff"=
 SIZE=3D3 PTSIZE=3D12 FAMILY=3D"SANSSERIF" FACE=3D"Arial" LANG=3D"0">



Hi Ted,



       Type Earthquake Prediction into Google?=


       See http://www.nature.com/nature/debate=
s/earthquake/equake_frameset.html



       Short answer is that we don't know. Str=
ong quakes may be associated with parts of the tide cycle. The question is w=
hich cycle? The local background noise may decrease before a large quake. Th=
ere may be physical movement before shallower quakes, but you are unlikely t=
o get much observable effect at the surface if the rupture is 100 km down. A=
bout 1/3 of quakes show precursor quakes. There may be a few cycles of very=20=
long period precursor. There may be changes in the water table, changes in R=
adon emission, electric / RF field noise, animals seem to be able to sense '=
something'..... 

       One thing is certain. If you say we wil=
l never be able to predict quakes and no funds to experiment are allocated,=20=
we WON'T develop the / any ability!! Even if we could only get timely warnin=
g for a few quake locations / depths, the benefits could be very significant=
.. A lot of the severe quakes are associated with subduction zones, like thos=
e off the west coast of the Americas, but the interval may be hundreds of ye=
ars.

 

       Regards,



       Chris Chapman