FYI,,  Following this little introduction, is a simple study I did a few 
years ago!!   Since then I have tried to correlate the events to Solid 
Earth Tide,,,   so far I have found no correlation!!    My conclusion at 
this point is that I think there may be a moon and or sun tide 
connection, but like trying to predict the position in the bending cycle 
where a wire will finally break, that you bend with your fingers, there 
appears to be a similar problem with trying to tie a tidal phase point 
to quakes????  It simply breaks when it is ready, no matter where in the 
tidal cycle of bending it happens to be????   The complexity of water 
tides may also contribute to the problem for events that happen in the 
vicinity of ocean tides?????   The reason I feel that there may be a 
phase connection, becomes clear from the following study where we see 
that the time of the new moon, where we have the greatest tidal motion, 
also favors the greatest number of quakes??????    I am open to 
correction, other studies, other data, and or other conclusions!!!!
  Stephen
  PSN Station #55


Subject:
Large quakes (mag. 8 and above) and their relationship to Moon phases, 
using data found over the web at the following links:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_earthquakes

http://www.fourmilab.ch/cgi-bin/uncgi/Earth/action?opt=-m&img=Moon.evif

Using the top link to find quake times and mag., then using the bottom 
link to compare them to moon phases, I found 38 quakes of mag. 8 or 
greater since 1556, of which I used 35 because the first three did not 
have times listed.  Where local times were listed I converted them to 
UTC time for compatibility with the Moon phase link.

After finding the data, the next problem is determining how to 
illustrate it with statistics!  Statistics can be used in many ways to 
manipulate data!   Do we use only one or two days around the new and 
full moon and compare that to the total, or should we divide it into 
approx. 4 equal quadrants?   For my simple analysis I will use 4 
quadrants.   The moon link above uses approx. 29.4 days for a complete 
cycle, so I will use approx. 7.35 days per quadrant, which when related 
to the phases works out to about the following:
New moon quadrant equals                  0 to 15 %
Full moon quadrant equals                 85 to 100 %
first and last quarter quadrant equals    16 to 86 %
When we sort the 35 phase data into their quadrants we get the following:
Quakes during New moon               =   15
Quakes during Full moon              =    7
Quakes during First & Last quarter   =   13
When we combine the New and Full quarters to compare with First and Last 
quarters we get:
Quakes during New & Full moon        =   22
Conclusion:
The New moon quadrant favors the Full moon quadrant by a little more 
than double!
The combined New and Full quadrants favor the First and Last quadrants 
by not quite double!
Interesting!!!!!    I was led to believe that there was no statistical 
correlation between quakes and Moon phases???     Perhaps if we added 
the mag. 6 and 7 quakes we would find different conclusions,,,,   that 
is for someone else to do!!!

List of mag. 8 quakes or greater,,   With percent of Moon Phase listed
0% = New Moon,  100% = Full Moon,    50% = either First or Last Quarter
                        Please forgive any TYPOs

 #   Moon  Year    Mo.  Day    UTC      Place        Approx.
     Phase                     Time                    Mag.
 1    ??%   1556  Jan.   23     ??      China           8
 2    ??%   1668  Aug.   17     ??      Turkey          8
 3    ??%   1700  Jan.   26     ??      Vancouver       9
************************************************
 4    10%   1755   Nov.   1    10:16    Portugal        8.7
 5     0%   1811   Dec.  16    08:00    Missouri        8.1
 6    33%   1812   Feb.   7    09:45    Missouri        8
 7    43%   1855   Jan.  24    10:11    New Zealand     8
 8    20%   1891   Oct.  27    21:38    Japan           8
 9    21%   1896   Jun.  15    19:32    Japan           8.5
10    91%   1897   Jun.  12    11:06    India           8.3
11    29%   1899   Sep.  10    21:41    Alaska          8
12     8%   1905   Jul.   5    09:40    Mongolia        8.4
13    41%   1906   Jan.  31    15:36    Colombia        8.8
14     9%   1906   Aug.  17    00:40    Chile           8.2
15    29%   1920   Dec.  16    12:05    China           8.6
16    34%   1933   Mar.   2    17:31    Japan           8.4
17     0%   1934   Jan.  15    08:43    India           8.1
18    88%   1938   Nov.  10    20:18    Alaska          8.2
19    54%   1944   Dec.   7    04:35    Japan           8.1
20    48%   1946   Aug.   4    17:51    Dom. Repub.     8.0
21     6%   1946   Dec.  20    19:19    Japan           8.1
22     5%   1949   Aug.  22    04:01    Q. Charlo. Is.  8.1
23     4%   1950   Aug.  15    14:09    Tibet           8.6
24    91%   1952   Nov.   4    16:58    Russia          9
25    51%   1957   Mar.   9    14:22    Alaska          9.1
26    90%   1957   Dec.   4    03:37    Mongolia        8.1
27     6%   1960   May   22    19:11    Chile           9.5
28    99%   1964   Mar.  28    03:36    Alaska          9.2
29     5%   1965   Feb.   4    05:01    Alaska          8.7
30     2%   1970   Jul.  31    17.08    Colombia        8
31    28%   1985   Sep.  19    13:17    Mexico          8
32     0%   1986   May    7    22:47    Alaska          8
33     0%   1994   Jun.   9    00:33    Bolivia         8.2
34    76%   2000   Nov.  16    04:54    New Ireland     8
35     7%   2001   Jun.  23    20:33    Peru            8.4
36     0%   2003   Sep.  25    19:50    Japan           8.3
37    91%   2004   Dec.  23    14:59    Macquarie       8.1
38    99%   2004   Dec.  26    00:59    Sumatra         9.0


tchannel wrote:
> Hi Folks,  Just curious about the subject of Earthquake Predictions.   
> We all can predict earthquakes, if we keep the "when" and "where" 
> nonspecific.   But on a serious note, are there any scientific tools 
> used?   Do the phases of the moon and the tides play a part?   I have 
> asked this question to several people and received just as many opinions.
>  
> Thanks, Ted



  
  


FYI,,  Following this little introduction,
is a simple study I did a few years ago!!   Since then I have tried to
correlate the events to Solid Earth Tide,,,   so far I have found no
correlation!!    My conclusion at this point is that I think there may
be a moon and or sun tide connection, but like trying to predict the
position in the bending cycle where a wire will finally break, that you
bend with your fingers, there appears to be a similar problem with
trying to tie a tidal phase point to quakes????  It simply breaks when
it is ready, no matter where in the tidal cycle of bending it happens
to be????   The complexity of water tides may also contribute to the
problem for events that happen in the vicinity of ocean tides?????  
The reason I feel that there may be a phase connection, becomes clear
from the following study where we see that the time of the new moon,
where we have the greatest tidal motion, also favors the greatest
number of quakes??????    I am open to correction, other studies, other
data, and or other conclusions!!!!

  Stephen

  PSN Station #55





Subject:

Large quakes (mag. 8 and above) and their relationship to Moon phases,
using data found over the web at the following links:



http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_earthquakes



http://www.fourmilab.ch/cgi-bin/uncgi/Earth/action?opt=-m&img=Moon.evif



Using the top link to find quake times and mag., then using the bottom
link to compare them to moon phases, I found 38 quakes of mag. 8 or
greater since 1556, of which I used 35 because the first three did not
have times listed.  Where local times were listed I converted them to
UTC time for compatibility with the Moon phase link.



After finding the data, the next problem is determining how to
illustrate it with statistics!  Statistics can be used in many ways to
manipulate data!   Do we use only one or two days around the new and
full moon and compare that to the total, or should we divide it into
approx. 4 equal quadrants?   For my simple analysis I will use 4
quadrants.   The moon link above uses approx. 29.4 days for a complete
cycle, so I will use approx. 7.35 days per quadrant, which when related
to the phases works out to about the following:

New moon quadrant equals                  0 to 15 %

Full moon quadrant equals                 85 to 100 %

first and last quarter quadrant equals    16 to 86 %

When we sort the 35 phase data into their quadrants we get the
following:

Quakes during New moon               =   15

Quakes during Full moon              =    7

Quakes during First & Last quarter   =   13

When we combine the New and Full quarters to compare with First and
Last quarters we get:

Quakes during New & Full moon        =   22

Conclusion:

The New moon quadrant favors the Full moon quadrant by a little more
than double!

The combined New and Full quadrants favor the First and Last quadrants
by not quite double!

Interesting!!!!!    I was led to believe that there was no statistical
correlation between quakes and Moon phases???     Perhaps if we added
the mag. 6 and 7 quakes we would find different conclusions,,,,   that
is for someone else to do!!!



List of mag. 8 quakes or greater,,   With percent of Moon Phase listed

0% = New Moon,  100% = Full Moon,    50% = either First or Last Quarter

                        Please forgive any TYPOs 



 #   Moon  Year    Mo.  Day    UTC      Place        Approx.

     Phase                     Time                    Mag.

 1    ??%   1556  Jan.   23     ??      China           8

 2    ??%   1668  Aug.   17     ??      Turkey          8

 3    ??%   1700  Jan.   26     ??      Vancouver       9

************************************************

 4    10%   1755   Nov.   1    10:16    Portugal        8.7

 5     0%   1811   Dec.  16    08:00    Missouri        8.1

 6    33%   1812   Feb.   7    09:45    Missouri        8

 7    43%   1855   Jan.  24    10:11    New Zealand     8

 8    20%   1891   Oct.  27    21:38    Japan           8

 9    21%   1896   Jun.  15    19:32    Japan           8.5

10    91%   1897   Jun.  12    11:06    India           8.3

11    29%   1899   Sep.  10    21:41    Alaska          8

12     8%   1905   Jul.   5    09:40    Mongolia        8.4

13    41%   1906   Jan.  31    15:36    Colombia        8.8

14     9%   1906   Aug.  17    00:40    Chile           8.2

15    29%   1920   Dec.  16    12:05    China           8.6

16    34%   1933   Mar.   2    17:31    Japan           8.4

17     0%   1934   Jan.  15    08:43    India           8.1

18    88%   1938   Nov.  10    20:18    Alaska          8.2

19    54%   1944   Dec.   7    04:35    Japan           8.1

20    48%   1946   Aug.   4    17:51    Dom. Repub.     8.0

21     6%   1946   Dec.  20    19:19    Japan           8.1

22     5%   1949   Aug.  22    04:01    Q. Charlo. Is.  8.1

23     4%   1950   Aug.  15    14:09    Tibet           8.6

24    91%   1952   Nov.   4    16:58    Russia          9

25    51%   1957   Mar.   9    14:22    Alaska          9.1

26    90%   1957   Dec.   4    03:37    Mongolia        8.1

27     6%   1960   May   22    19:11    Chile           9.5

28    99%   1964   Mar.  28    03:36    Alaska          9.2

29     5%   1965   Feb.   4    05:01    Alaska          8.7

30     2%   1970   Jul.  31    17.08    Colombia        8

31    28%   1985   Sep.  19    13:17    Mexico          8

32     0%   1986   May    7    22:47    Alaska          8

33     0%   1994   Jun.   9    00:33    Bolivia         8.2

34    76%   2000   Nov.  16    04:54    New Ireland     8

35     7%   2001   Jun.  23    20:33    Peru            8.4

36     0%   2003   Sep.  25    19:50    Japan           8.3

37    91%   2004   Dec.  23    14:59    Macquarie       8.1

38    99%   2004   Dec.  26    00:59    Sumatra         9.0





tchannel wrote:

  
  
  
  
Hi Folks,  Just curious about the
subject of Earthquake Predictions.   We all can predict earthquakes, if
we keep the "when" and "where" nonspecific.   But on a serious
note, are there any scientific tools used?   Do the phases of the moon
and the tides play a part?   I have asked this question to several
people and received just as many opinions.
  
 
  
Thanks, Ted