Chris makes a lot of good points about predictions and I ag=
ree with him. The main point in my mind is made with the understanding that=
 if you live in a zone with natural disasters, you need to understand the r=
isks with your choice of locations and prepare for the possibilities that a=
re associated with it. 
On a personal note, I experienced another side effect assoc=
iated with predictions following the Loma P event in 1989. I lived in South=
 San Jose and a young nine year old came to my front door because a guy nam=
e Jack (I don=E2=80=99t remember his last name) had been on the local news =
claiming he could predict earthquakes and in fact had predicted a big one i=
n a few week. She was scared out of her wits and knowing I had seismographs=
 running at a local elementary school wanted to know if Jack=E2=80=99s pred=
ictions were true. 
What are the issues at hand?  1) Jack knows what he was talking about and we should all =
prepare for the great event. 2) We should continue to prepare for the event=
uality of a great event. 3) We should ignore the fact that a great event co=
uld occur at any time. I=E2=
=80=99ll leave the answer up to you. I spent a few hours talking to th=
is child and from the experence gained a better understanding of the impact=
 it can have on people.
 
Regards, Steve Hammond
PSN San Jose, Aptos, CA



-----Original Message----- 
From: ChrisAtUpw@....... 
=
Sent: Apr 20, 2007 8:23 PM 
To: psn-l@.............. 
Subject: Re: Pr=
edictions 

In a message dated 2007/04/20, tchannel@.............. w=
rites:


Just curious about the subj=
ect of Earthquake Predictions. But on a serious note, are there any scienti=
fic tools used? Do the phases of the moon and the tides play a part? I have=
 asked this question to several people and received just as many opinions.<=
/FONT>

Hi Ted,

       Type E=
arthquake Prediction into Google?
       S=
ee http://www.nature.com/nature/debates/earthquake/equake_frameset.html
=

       Short answer is that we don't know=
.. Strong quakes may be associated with parts of the tide cycle. The questio=
n is which cycle? The local background noise may decrease before a large qu=
ake. There may be physical movement before shallower quakes, but you are un=
likely to get much observable effect at the surface if the rupture is 100 k=
m down. About 1/3 of quakes show precursor quakes. There may be a few cycle=
s of very long period precursor. There may be changes in the water table, c=
hanges in Radon emission, electric / RF field noise, animals seem to be abl=
e to sense 'something'..... 
       One th=
ing is certain. If you say we will never be able to predict quakes and no f=
unds to experiment are allocated, we WON'T develop the / any ability!! Even=
 if we could only get timely warning for a few quake locations / depths, th=
e benefits could be very significant. A lot of the severe quakes are associ=
ated with subduction zones, like those off the west coast of the Americas, =
but the interval may be hundreds of years.

    &=
nbsp;  Regards,

       Chris Chap=
man