PSN-L Email List Message
Subject: Re: Predictions
From: "tchannel" tchannel@..............
Date: Sat, 21 Apr 2007 09:19:10 -0600
Stephen and Everyone, This is just great input....Stephen, Yes I sure =
would like to see your study expanded to include M6 and M7's. I =
printed you message. I wish I know something about Statistics.
Thanks, Ted
----- Original Message -----=20
From: Stephen & Kathy=20
To: psn-l@.................
Sent: Saturday, April 21, 2007 12:12 AM
Subject: Re: Predictions
FYI,, Following this little introduction, is a simple study I did a =
few years ago!! Since then I have tried to correlate the events to =
Solid Earth Tide,,, so far I have found no correlation!! My =
conclusion at this point is that I think there may be a moon and or sun =
tide connection, but like trying to predict the position in the bending =
cycle where a wire will finally break, that you bend with your fingers, =
there appears to be a similar problem with trying to tie a tidal phase =
point to quakes???? It simply breaks when it is ready, no matter where =
in the tidal cycle of bending it happens to be???? The complexity of =
water tides may also contribute to the problem for events that happen in =
the vicinity of ocean tides????? The reason I feel that there may be a =
phase connection, becomes clear from the following study where we see =
that the time of the new moon, where we have the greatest tidal motion, =
also favors the greatest number of quakes?????? I am open to =
correction, other studies, other data, and or other conclusions!!!!
Stephen
PSN Station #55
Subject:
Large quakes (mag. 8 and above) and their relationship to Moon phases, =
using data found over the web at the following links:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_earthquakes
=
http://www.fourmilab.ch/cgi-bin/uncgi/Earth/action?opt=3D-m&img=3DMoon.ev=
if
Using the top link to find quake times and mag., then using the bottom =
link to compare them to moon phases, I found 38 quakes of mag. 8 or =
greater since 1556, of which I used 35 because the first three did not =
have times listed. Where local times were listed I converted them to =
UTC time for compatibility with the Moon phase link.
After finding the data, the next problem is determining how to =
illustrate it with statistics! Statistics can be used in many ways to =
manipulate data! Do we use only one or two days around the new and =
full moon and compare that to the total, or should we divide it into =
approx. 4 equal quadrants? For my simple analysis I will use 4 =
quadrants. The moon link above uses approx. 29.4 days for a complete =
cycle, so I will use approx. 7.35 days per quadrant, which when related =
to the phases works out to about the following:
New moon quadrant equals 0 to 15 %
Full moon quadrant equals 85 to 100 %
first and last quarter quadrant equals 16 to 86 %
When we sort the 35 phase data into their quadrants we get the =
following:
Quakes during New moon =3D 15
Quakes during Full moon =3D 7
Quakes during First & Last quarter =3D 13
When we combine the New and Full quarters to compare with First and =
Last quarters we get:
Quakes during New & Full moon =3D 22
Conclusion:
The New moon quadrant favors the Full moon quadrant by a little more =
than double!
The combined New and Full quadrants favor the First and Last quadrants =
by not quite double!
Interesting!!!!! I was led to believe that there was no statistical =
correlation between quakes and Moon phases??? Perhaps if we added =
the mag. 6 and 7 quakes we would find different conclusions,,,, that =
is for someone else to do!!!
List of mag. 8 quakes or greater,, With percent of Moon Phase listed
0% =3D New Moon, 100% =3D Full Moon, 50% =3D either First or Last =
Quarter
Please forgive any TYPOs=20
# Moon Year Mo. Day UTC Place Approx.
Phase Time Mag.
1 ??% 1556 Jan. 23 ?? China 8
2 ??% 1668 Aug. 17 ?? Turkey 8
3 ??% 1700 Jan. 26 ?? Vancouver 9
************************************************
4 10% 1755 Nov. 1 10:16 Portugal 8.7
5 0% 1811 Dec. 16 08:00 Missouri 8.1
6 33% 1812 Feb. 7 09:45 Missouri 8
7 43% 1855 Jan. 24 10:11 New Zealand 8
8 20% 1891 Oct. 27 21:38 Japan 8
9 21% 1896 Jun. 15 19:32 Japan 8.5
10 91% 1897 Jun. 12 11:06 India 8.3
11 29% 1899 Sep. 10 21:41 Alaska 8
12 8% 1905 Jul. 5 09:40 Mongolia 8.4
13 41% 1906 Jan. 31 15:36 Colombia 8.8
14 9% 1906 Aug. 17 00:40 Chile 8.2
15 29% 1920 Dec. 16 12:05 China 8.6
16 34% 1933 Mar. 2 17:31 Japan 8.4
17 0% 1934 Jan. 15 08:43 India 8.1
18 88% 1938 Nov. 10 20:18 Alaska 8.2
19 54% 1944 Dec. 7 04:35 Japan 8.1
20 48% 1946 Aug. 4 17:51 Dom. Repub. 8.0
21 6% 1946 Dec. 20 19:19 Japan 8.1
22 5% 1949 Aug. 22 04:01 Q. Charlo. Is. 8.1
23 4% 1950 Aug. 15 14:09 Tibet 8.6
24 91% 1952 Nov. 4 16:58 Russia 9
25 51% 1957 Mar. 9 14:22 Alaska 9.1
26 90% 1957 Dec. 4 03:37 Mongolia 8.1
27 6% 1960 May 22 19:11 Chile 9.5
28 99% 1964 Mar. 28 03:36 Alaska 9.2
29 5% 1965 Feb. 4 05:01 Alaska 8.7
30 2% 1970 Jul. 31 17.08 Colombia 8
31 28% 1985 Sep. 19 13:17 Mexico 8
32 0% 1986 May 7 22:47 Alaska 8
33 0% 1994 Jun. 9 00:33 Bolivia 8.2
34 76% 2000 Nov. 16 04:54 New Ireland 8
35 7% 2001 Jun. 23 20:33 Peru 8.4
36 0% 2003 Sep. 25 19:50 Japan 8.3
37 91% 2004 Dec. 23 14:59 Macquarie 8.1
38 99% 2004 Dec. 26 00:59 Sumatra 9.0
tchannel wrote:=20
Hi Folks, Just curious about the subject of Earthquake Predictions. =
We all can predict earthquakes, if we keep the "when" and "where" =
nonspecific. But on a serious note, are there any scientific tools =
used? Do the phases of the moon and the tides play a part? I have =
asked this question to several people and received just as many =
opinions.
Stephen and Everyone, This is =
just great=20
input....Stephen, Yes I sure would like to see your study expanded to =
include M6=20
and M7's. I printed you message. I wish I know =
something=20
about Statistics.
Thanks, Ted
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Saturday, April 21, 2007 =
12:12=20
AM
Subject: Re: Predictions
FYI,, Following this =
little=20
introduction, is a simple study I did a few years ago!! =
Since then=20
I have tried to correlate the events to Solid Earth =
Tide,,, so far=20
I have found no correlation!! My conclusion at this point =
is that=20
I think there may be a moon and or sun tide connection, but like =
trying to=20
predict the position in the bending cycle where a wire will finally =
break,=20
that you bend with your fingers, there appears to be a similar problem =
with=20
trying to tie a tidal phase point to quakes???? It simply breaks =
when it=20
is ready, no matter where in the tidal cycle of bending it happens to =
be????=20
The complexity of water tides may also contribute to the =
problem for=20
events that happen in the vicinity of ocean tides????? The =
reason=20
I feel that there may be a phase connection, becomes clear from the =
following=20
study where we see that the time of the new moon, where we have the =
greatest=20
tidal motion, also favors the greatest number of=20
quakes?????? I am open to correction, other studies, =
other=20
data, and or other conclusions!!!!
Stephen
PSN =
Station=20
#55
Subject:
Large quakes (mag. 8 and =
above) and=20
their relationship to Moon phases, using data found over the web at =
the=20
following links:
http://en.wikip=
edia.org/wiki/List_of_earthquakes
http://www.fourmilab.ch/cgi-bin/uncgi/Earth/action?opt=3D=
-m&img=3DMoon.evif
Using=20
the top link to find quake times and mag., then using the bottom link =
to=20
compare them to moon phases, I found 38 quakes of mag. 8 or greater =
since=20
1556, of which I used 35 because the first three did not have times=20
listed. Where local times were listed I converted them to UTC =
time for=20
compatibility with the Moon phase link.
After finding the data, =
the=20
next problem is determining how to illustrate it with =
statistics! =20
Statistics can be used in many ways to manipulate data! Do =
we use=20
only one or two days around the new and full moon and compare that to =
the=20
total, or should we divide it into approx. 4 equal =
quadrants? For=20
my simple analysis I will use 4 quadrants. The moon link =
above=20
uses approx. 29.4 days for a complete cycle, so I will use approx. =
7.35 days=20
per quadrant, which when related to the phases works out to about the=20
following:
New moon quadrant=20
=
equals &=
nbsp; =20
0 to 15 %
Full moon quadrant=20
=
equals &=
nbsp; =20
85 to 100 %
first and last quarter quadrant =
equals 16 to=20
86 %
When we sort the 35 phase data into their quadrants we get the =
following:
Quakes during New=20
=
moon &nb=
sp; =20
=3D 15
Quakes during Full=20
=
moon &nb=
sp; =20
=3D 7
Quakes during First & Last =
quarter =20
=3D 13
When we combine the New and Full quarters to =
compare with=20
First and Last quarters we get:
Quakes during New & Full=20
moon =3D =20
22
Conclusion:
The New moon quadrant favors the Full moon =
quadrant by a=20
little more than double!
The combined New and Full quadrants favor =
the=20
First and Last quadrants by not quite=20
double!
Interesting!!!!! I was led to believe =
that there=20
was no statistical correlation between quakes and Moon=20
phases??? Perhaps if we added the mag. 6 and 7 =
quakes=20
we would find different conclusions,,,, that is for =
someone else=20
to do!!!
List of mag. 8 quakes or greater,, With =
percent of=20
Moon Phase listed
0% =3D New Moon, 100% =3D Full =
Moon, =20
50% =3D either First or Last=20
=
Quarter
&n=
bsp; &nb=
sp;=20
Please forgive any TYPOs
# Moon =20
Year Mo. Day =20
UTC =20
Place =20
Approx.
=20
=
Phase &n=
bsp; =20
=
Time &nb=
sp; =20
Mag.
1 ??% 1556 =
Jan. =20
23 ?? =20
China =20
8
2 ??% 1668 =
Aug. =20
17 ?? =20
Turkey =20
8
3 ??% 1700 =
Jan. =20
26 ?? =20
Vancouver =20
=
9
************************************************
4 &nb=
sp; =20
10% 1755 Nov. 1 =20
10:16 =
Portugal =20
8.7
5 0% 1811 =
Dec. 16 08:00 =20
Missouri =20
8.1
6 33% 1812 =20
Feb. 7 09:45 =20
Missouri =20
8
7 43% 1855 =
Jan. =20
24 10:11 New=20
Zealand 8
8 =
20% =20
1891 Oct. 27 =
21:38 =20
Japan =20
8
9 21% 1896 =
Jun. =20
15 19:32 =20
Japan =20
8.5
10 91% 1897 =
Jun. =20
12 11:06 =20
India =20
8.3
11 29% 1899 =
Sep. =20
10 21:41 =20
Alaska =20
8
12 8% 1905 =20
Jul. 5 09:40 =20
Mongolia =
8.4
13 =20
41% 1906 Jan. 31 =20
15:36 =
Colombia =20
8.8
14 9% 1906 =
Aug. =20
17 00:40 =20
Chile =20
8.2
15 29% 1920 =
Dec. =20
16 12:05 China=20
=20
8.6
16 34% 1933 =
Mar. =20
2 17:31 =20
Japan =20
8.4
17 0% 1934 =
Jan. =20
15 08:43 =20
India =20
8.1
18 88% 1938 =
Nov. =20
10 20:18 =20
Alaska =20
8.2
19 54% 1944 =
Dec. =20
7 04:35 =20
Japan =20
8.1
20 48% 1946 =
Aug. =20
4 17:51 Dom.=20
Repub. 8.0
21 =20
6% 1946 Dec. 20 =20
19:19 =20
Japan =20
8.1
22 5% 1949 =
Aug. =20
22 04:01 Q. Charlo. Is. =20
8.1
23 4% 1950 =
Aug. =20
15 14:09 =20
Tibet =20
8.6
24 91% 1952 =
Nov. =20
4 16:58 =20
Russia =20
9
25 51% 1957 =
Mar. =20
9 14:22 =20
Alaska =20
9.1
26 90% 1957 =
Dec. =20
4 03:37 =20
Mongolia =20
8.1
27 6% 1960 =20
May 22 19:11 =20
Chile =20
9.5
28 99% 1964 =
Mar. =20
28 03:36 =20
Alaska =20
9.2
29 5% 1965 =20
Feb. 4 05:01 =20
Alaska =20
8.7
30 2% 1970 =
Jul. =20
31 17.08 =20
Colombia =
8
31 =20
28% 1985 Sep. 19 =20
13:17 =20
Mexico =20
8
32 0% 1986 =20
May 7 22:47 =20
Alaska =20
8
33 0% 1994 =20
Jun. 9 00:33 =20
Bolivia =20
8.2
34 76% 2000 =
Nov. =20
16 04:54 New=20
Ireland 8
35 =
7% =20
2001 Jun. 23 =
20:33 =20
Peru =
8.4
36 0% 2003 =
Sep. =20
25 19:50 =20
Japan =20
8.3
37 91% 2004 =
Dec. =20
23 14:59 =20
Macquarie =
8.1
38 =20
99% 2004 Dec. 26 =20
00:59 =20
Sumatra =20
9.0
tchannel wrote:=20
Hi Folks, Just curious about =
the subject=20
of Earthquake Predictions. We all can predict =
earthquakes, if we=20
keep the "when" and "where" nonspecific. But on a =
serious=20
note, are there any scientific tools used? Do the =
phases of=20
the moon and the tides play a part? I have asked this =
question=20
to several people and received just as many opinions.
Thanks,=20
Ted
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