PSN-L Email List Message

Subject: Re: Predictions
From: "tchannel" tchannel@..............
Date: Sat, 21 Apr 2007 09:19:10 -0600


Stephen and Everyone,  This is just great input....Stephen, Yes I sure =
would like to see your study expanded to include M6 and M7's.   I =
printed you message.   I wish I know something about Statistics.
Thanks, Ted
  ----- Original Message -----=20
  From: Stephen & Kathy=20
  To: psn-l@.................
  Sent: Saturday, April 21, 2007 12:12 AM
  Subject: Re: Predictions


  FYI,,  Following this little introduction, is a simple study I did a =
few years ago!!   Since then I have tried to correlate the events to =
Solid Earth Tide,,,   so far I have found no correlation!!    My =
conclusion at this point is that I think there may be a moon and or sun =
tide connection, but like trying to predict the position in the bending =
cycle where a wire will finally break, that you bend with your fingers, =
there appears to be a similar problem with trying to tie a tidal phase =
point to quakes????  It simply breaks when it is ready, no matter where =
in the tidal cycle of bending it happens to be????   The complexity of =
water tides may also contribute to the problem for events that happen in =
the vicinity of ocean tides?????   The reason I feel that there may be a =
phase connection, becomes clear from the following study where we see =
that the time of the new moon, where we have the greatest tidal motion, =
also favors the greatest number of quakes??????    I am open to =
correction, other studies, other data, and or other conclusions!!!!
    Stephen
    PSN Station #55


  Subject:
  Large quakes (mag. 8 and above) and their relationship to Moon phases, =
using data found over the web at the following links:

  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_earthquakes

  =
http://www.fourmilab.ch/cgi-bin/uncgi/Earth/action?opt=3D-m&img=3DMoon.ev=
if

  Using the top link to find quake times and mag., then using the bottom =
link to compare them to moon phases, I found 38 quakes of mag. 8 or =
greater since 1556, of which I used 35 because the first three did not =
have times listed.  Where local times were listed I converted them to =
UTC time for compatibility with the Moon phase link.

  After finding the data, the next problem is determining how to =
illustrate it with statistics!  Statistics can be used in many ways to =
manipulate data!   Do we use only one or two days around the new and =
full moon and compare that to the total, or should we divide it into =
approx. 4 equal quadrants?   For my simple analysis I will use 4 =
quadrants.   The moon link above uses approx. 29.4 days for a complete =
cycle, so I will use approx. 7.35 days per quadrant, which when related =
to the phases works out to about the following:
  New moon quadrant equals                  0 to 15 %
  Full moon quadrant equals                 85 to 100 %
  first and last quarter quadrant equals    16 to 86 %
  When we sort the 35 phase data into their quadrants we get the =
following:
  Quakes during New moon               =3D   15
  Quakes during Full moon              =3D    7
  Quakes during First & Last quarter   =3D   13
  When we combine the New and Full quarters to compare with First and =
Last quarters we get:
  Quakes during New & Full moon        =3D   22
  Conclusion:
  The New moon quadrant favors the Full moon quadrant by a little more =
than double!
  The combined New and Full quadrants favor the First and Last quadrants =
by not quite double!
  Interesting!!!!!    I was led to believe that there was no statistical =
correlation between quakes and Moon phases???     Perhaps if we added =
the mag. 6 and 7 quakes we would find different conclusions,,,,   that =
is for someone else to do!!!

  List of mag. 8 quakes or greater,,   With percent of Moon Phase listed
  0% =3D New Moon,  100% =3D Full Moon,    50% =3D either First or Last =
Quarter
                          Please forgive any TYPOs=20

   #   Moon  Year    Mo.  Day    UTC      Place        Approx.
       Phase                     Time                    Mag.
   1    ??%   1556  Jan.   23     ??      China           8
   2    ??%   1668  Aug.   17     ??      Turkey          8
   3    ??%   1700  Jan.   26     ??      Vancouver       9
  ************************************************
   4    10%   1755   Nov.   1    10:16    Portugal        8.7
   5     0%   1811   Dec.  16    08:00    Missouri        8.1
   6    33%   1812   Feb.   7    09:45    Missouri        8
   7    43%   1855   Jan.  24    10:11    New Zealand     8
   8    20%   1891   Oct.  27    21:38    Japan           8
   9    21%   1896   Jun.  15    19:32    Japan           8.5
  10    91%   1897   Jun.  12    11:06    India           8.3
  11    29%   1899   Sep.  10    21:41    Alaska          8
  12     8%   1905   Jul.   5    09:40    Mongolia        8.4
  13    41%   1906   Jan.  31    15:36    Colombia        8.8
  14     9%   1906   Aug.  17    00:40    Chile           8.2
  15    29%   1920   Dec.  16    12:05    China           8.6
  16    34%   1933   Mar.   2    17:31    Japan           8.4
  17     0%   1934   Jan.  15    08:43    India           8.1
  18    88%   1938   Nov.  10    20:18    Alaska          8.2
  19    54%   1944   Dec.   7    04:35    Japan           8.1
  20    48%   1946   Aug.   4    17:51    Dom. Repub.     8.0
  21     6%   1946   Dec.  20    19:19    Japan           8.1
  22     5%   1949   Aug.  22    04:01    Q. Charlo. Is.  8.1
  23     4%   1950   Aug.  15    14:09    Tibet           8.6
  24    91%   1952   Nov.   4    16:58    Russia          9
  25    51%   1957   Mar.   9    14:22    Alaska          9.1
  26    90%   1957   Dec.   4    03:37    Mongolia        8.1
  27     6%   1960   May   22    19:11    Chile           9.5
  28    99%   1964   Mar.  28    03:36    Alaska          9.2
  29     5%   1965   Feb.   4    05:01    Alaska          8.7
  30     2%   1970   Jul.  31    17.08    Colombia        8
  31    28%   1985   Sep.  19    13:17    Mexico          8
  32     0%   1986   May    7    22:47    Alaska          8
  33     0%   1994   Jun.   9    00:33    Bolivia         8.2
  34    76%   2000   Nov.  16    04:54    New Ireland     8
  35     7%   2001   Jun.  23    20:33    Peru            8.4
  36     0%   2003   Sep.  25    19:50    Japan           8.3
  37    91%   2004   Dec.  23    14:59    Macquarie       8.1
  38    99%   2004   Dec.  26    00:59    Sumatra         9.0


  tchannel wrote:=20
    Hi Folks,  Just curious about the subject of Earthquake Predictions. =
  We all can predict earthquakes, if we keep the "when" and "where" =
nonspecific.   But on a serious note, are there any scientific tools =
used?   Do the phases of the moon and the tides play a part?   I have =
asked this question to several people and received just as many =
opinions.






Stephen and Everyone,  This is = just great=20 input....Stephen, Yes I sure would like to see your study expanded to = include M6=20 and M7's.   I printed you message.   I wish I know = something=20 about Statistics.
Thanks, Ted
----- Original Message -----
From:=20 Stephen &=20 Kathy
To: psn-l@..............
Sent: Saturday, April 21, 2007 = 12:12=20 AM
Subject: Re: Predictions

FYI,,  Following this = little=20 introduction, is a simple study I did a few years ago!!   = Since then=20 I have tried to correlate the events to Solid Earth = Tide,,,   so far=20 I have found no correlation!!    My conclusion at this point = is that=20 I think there may be a moon and or sun tide connection, but like = trying to=20 predict the position in the bending cycle where a wire will finally = break,=20 that you bend with your fingers, there appears to be a similar problem = with=20 trying to tie a tidal phase point to quakes????  It simply breaks = when it=20 is ready, no matter where in the tidal cycle of bending it happens to = be????=20   The complexity of water tides may also contribute to the = problem for=20 events that happen in the vicinity of ocean tides?????   The = reason=20 I feel that there may be a phase connection, becomes clear from the = following=20 study where we see that the time of the new moon, where we have the = greatest=20 tidal motion, also favors the greatest number of=20 quakes??????    I am open to correction, other studies, = other=20 data, and or other conclusions!!!!
  Stephen
  PSN = Station=20 #55


Subject:
Large quakes (mag. 8 and = above) and=20 their relationship to Moon phases, using data found over the web at = the=20 following links:

http://en.wikip= edia.org/wiki/List_of_earthquakes

http://www.fourmilab.ch/cgi-bin/uncgi/Earth/action?opt=3D= -m&img=3DMoon.evif

Using=20 the top link to find quake times and mag., then using the bottom link = to=20 compare them to moon phases, I found 38 quakes of mag. 8 or greater = since=20 1556, of which I used 35 because the first three did not have times=20 listed.  Where local times were listed I converted them to UTC = time for=20 compatibility with the Moon phase link.

After finding the data, = the=20 next problem is determining how to illustrate it with = statistics! =20 Statistics can be used in many ways to manipulate data!   Do = we use=20 only one or two days around the new and full moon and compare that to = the=20 total, or should we divide it into approx. 4 equal = quadrants?   For=20 my simple analysis I will use 4 quadrants.   The moon link = above=20 uses approx. 29.4 days for a complete cycle, so I will use approx. = 7.35 days=20 per quadrant, which when related to the phases works out to about the=20 following:
New moon quadrant=20 = equals           &= nbsp;     =20 0 to 15 %
Full moon quadrant=20 = equals           &= nbsp;    =20 85 to 100 %
first and last quarter quadrant = equals    16 to=20 86 %
When we sort the 35 phase data into their quadrants we get the = following:
Quakes during New=20 = moon           &nb= sp;  =20 =3D   15
Quakes during Full=20 = moon           &nb= sp; =20 =3D    7
Quakes during First & Last = quarter  =20 =3D   13
When we combine the New and Full quarters to = compare with=20 First and Last quarters we get:
Quakes during New & Full=20 moon        =3D  =20 22
Conclusion:
The New moon quadrant favors the Full moon = quadrant by a=20 little more than double!
The combined New and Full quadrants favor = the=20 First and Last quadrants by not quite=20 double!
Interesting!!!!!    I was led to believe = that there=20 was no statistical correlation between quakes and Moon=20 phases???     Perhaps if we added the mag. 6 and 7 = quakes=20 we would find different conclusions,,,,   that is for = someone else=20 to do!!!

List of mag. 8 quakes or greater,,   With = percent of=20 Moon Phase listed
0% =3D New Moon,  100% =3D Full = Moon,   =20 50% =3D either First or Last=20 = Quarter
          &n= bsp;           &nb= sp;=20 Please forgive any TYPOs

 #   Moon =20 Year    Mo.  Day   =20 UTC     =20 Place       =20 Approx.
    =20 = Phase           &n= bsp;        =20 = Time           &nb= sp;       =20 Mag.
 1    ??%   1556  = Jan.  =20 23     ??     =20 China          =20 8
 2    ??%   1668  = Aug.  =20 17     ??     =20 Turkey         =20 8
 3    ??%   1700  = Jan.  =20 26     ??     =20 Vancouver      =20 = 9
************************************************
 4 &nb= sp; =20 10%   1755   Nov.   1   =20 10:16    = Portugal       =20 8.7
 5     0%   1811   = Dec.  16    08:00   =20 Missouri       =20 8.1
 6    33%   1812  =20 Feb.   7    09:45   =20 Missouri       =20 8
 7    43%   1855   = Jan. =20 24    10:11    New=20 Zealand     8
 8    = 20%  =20 1891   Oct.  27    = 21:38   =20 Japan          =20 8
 9    21%   1896   = Jun. =20 15    19:32   =20 Japan          =20 8.5
10    91%   1897   = Jun. =20 12    11:06   =20 India          =20 8.3
11    29%   1899   = Sep. =20 10    21:41   =20 Alaska         =20 8
12     8%   1905  =20 Jul.   5    09:40   =20 Mongolia        = 8.4
13   =20 41%   1906   Jan.  31   =20 15:36    = Colombia       =20 8.8
14     9%   1906   = Aug. =20 17    00:40   =20 Chile          =20 8.2
15    29%   1920   = Dec. =20 16    12:05    China=20          =20 8.6
16    34%   1933   = Mar.  =20 2    17:31   =20 Japan          =20 8.4
17     0%   1934   = Jan. =20 15    08:43   =20 India          =20 8.1
18    88%   1938   = Nov. =20 10    20:18   =20 Alaska         =20 8.2
19    54%   1944   = Dec.  =20 7    04:35   =20 Japan          =20 8.1
20    48%   1946   = Aug.  =20 4    17:51    Dom.=20 Repub.     8.0
21    =20 6%   1946   Dec.  20   =20 19:19   =20 Japan          =20 8.1
22     5%   1949   = Aug. =20 22    04:01    Q. Charlo. Is. =20 8.1
23     4%   1950   = Aug. =20 15    14:09   =20 Tibet          =20 8.6
24    91%   1952   = Nov.  =20 4    16:58   =20 Russia         =20 9
25    51%   1957   = Mar.  =20 9    14:22   =20 Alaska         =20 9.1
26    90%   1957   = Dec.  =20 4    03:37   =20 Mongolia       =20 8.1
27     6%   1960  =20 May   22    19:11   =20 Chile          =20 9.5
28    99%   1964   = Mar. =20 28    03:36   =20 Alaska         =20 9.2
29     5%   1965  =20 Feb.   4    05:01   =20 Alaska         =20 8.7
30     2%   1970   = Jul. =20 31    17.08   =20 Colombia        = 8
31   =20 28%   1985   Sep.  19   =20 13:17   =20 Mexico         =20 8
32     0%   1986  =20 May    7    22:47   =20 Alaska         =20 8
33     0%   1994  =20 Jun.   9    00:33   =20 Bolivia        =20 8.2
34    76%   2000   = Nov. =20 16    04:54    New=20 Ireland     8
35     = 7%  =20 2001   Jun.  23    = 20:33   =20 Peru            = 8.4
36     0%   2003   = Sep. =20 25    19:50   =20 Japan          =20 8.3
37    91%   2004   = Dec. =20 23    14:59   =20 Macquarie       = 8.1
38   =20 99%   2004   Dec.  26   =20 00:59   =20 Sumatra        =20 9.0


tchannel wrote:=20
Hi Folks,  Just curious about = the subject=20 of Earthquake Predictions.   We all can predict = earthquakes, if we=20 keep the "when" and "where" nonspecific.   But on a = serious=20 note, are there any scientific tools used?   Do the = phases of=20 the moon and the tides play a part?   I have asked this = question=20 to several people and received just as many opinions.
 
Thanks,=20 Ted

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