I so believe that we are getting closer..

  _____  

From: psn-l-request@.............. [mailto:psn-l-request@............... On
Behalf Of ChrisAtUpw@.......
Sent: Friday, April 20, 2007 8:23 PM
To: psn-l@..............
Subject: Re: Predictions


In a message dated 2007/04/20, tchannel@.............. writes:



Just curious about the subject of Earthquake Predictions. But on a serious
note, are there any scientific tools used? Do the phases of the moon and the
tides play a part? I have asked this question to several people and received
just as many opinions.



Hi Ted,

       Type Earthquake Prediction into Google?
       See
http://www.nature.com/nature/debates/earthquake/equake_frameset.html

       Short answer is that we don't know. Strong quakes may be associated
with parts of the tide cycle. The question is which cycle? The local
background noise may decrease before a large quake. There may be physical
movement before shallower quakes, but you are unlikely to get much
observable effect at the surface if the rupture is 100 km down. About 1/3 of
quakes show precursor quakes. There may be a few cycles of very long period
precursor. There may be changes in the water table, changes in Radon
emission, electric / RF field noise, animals seem to be able to sense
'something'..... 
       One thing is certain. If you say we will never be able to predict
quakes and no funds to experiment are allocated, we WON'T develop the / any
ability!! Even if we could only get timely warning for a few quake locations
/ depths, the benefits could be very significant. A lot of the severe quakes
are associated with subduction zones, like those off the west coast of the
Americas, but the interval may be hundreds of years.

       Regards,

       Chris Chapman 





I so believe that we are getting=20
closer..




From: psn-l-request@.................
[mailto:psn-l-request@............... On Behalf Of=20
ChrisAtUpw@.......
Sent: Friday, April 20, 2007 8:23=20
PM
To: psn-l@..............
Subject: Re:=20
Predictions


In =
a message=20
dated 2007/04/20, tchannel@.............. writes:


Just curious about the subject of Earthquake Predictions. =
But on a=20
  serious note, are there any scientific tools used? Do the phases of =
the moon=20
  and the tides play a part? I have asked this question to several =
people and=20
  received just as many opinions.

Hi=20
Ted,

       Type Earthquake =
Prediction into=20
Google?
       See=20
http://www.nature.com/nature/debates/earthquake/equake_frameset.html
<=
BR>      =20
Short answer is that we don't know. Strong quakes may be associated with =
parts=20
of the tide cycle. The question is which cycle? The local background =
noise may=20
decrease before a large quake. There may be physical movement before =
shallower=20
quakes, but you are unlikely to get much observable effect at the =
surface if the=20
rupture is 100 km down. About 1/3 of quakes show precursor quakes. There =
may be=20
a few cycles of very long period precursor. There may be changes in the =
water=20
table, changes in Radon emission, electric / RF field noise, animals =
seem to be=20
able to sense 'something'..... 
       =
One=20
thing is certain. If you say we will never be able to predict quakes and =
no=20
funds to experiment are allocated, we WON'T develop the / any ability!! =
Even if=20
we could only get timely warning for a few quake locations / depths, the =

benefits could be very significant. A lot of the severe quakes are =
associated=20
with subduction zones, like those off the west coast of the Americas, =
but the=20
interval may be hundreds of =
years.

      =20
Regards,

       Chris =
Chapman=20