PSN-L Email List Message
Subject: Re: Predictions
From: Stephen & Kathy skmort@............
Date: Sun, 22 Apr 2007 15:34:38 -0700
FYI,, here is a 7 mag and moon phase study,, it is easy
to mess up,, so, corrections are welcome!
Stephen
PSN Station #55
Comparing Moon Phase and 7.0 to 7.9 magnitude quakes.
From the first of the following two web sites, I located 61 quakes
in the magnitude range of 7.0 to 7.9 from the years 1812 to 2003.
From the second link I found the Moon Phase at the time of the quake.
I divided the phase into 4 approximately equal time quadrants.
The phase and time quadrants work out to about the following.
0 to 15% = New Moon quadrant
85 to 100% = Full Moon quadrant
16 to 84% = first or last quarter quadrant
For the data below, an F = First quarter, L = Last quarter quadrant
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_earthquakes
http://www.fourmilab.ch/cgi-bin/uncgi/Earth/action?opt=-m&img=Moon.evif
It sorts out to the following:
0 to 15% = 17
85 to 100% = 12
16 to 84% at F = 15
16 to 84% at L = 17
Conclusion:
Compared to the sorting of the 8 and 9 mag. quakes, the 7 mag.
events seem to start averaging out! While the New Moon favors
the Full Moon, the quarter moon quadrants have a slight edge
over the new and full moon quadrants in this study!
# Moon Year Mo. Day UTC Place Approx.
Phase Mag.
1 76%F 1812 Jan 23 15:00 Missouri 7.8
2 47%L 1823 Jun 2 8:00 Hawaii 7.0
3 99% 1857 Jan 9 16:24 California 7.9
4 78%F 1868 Apr 3 2:25 Hawaii 7.9
5 97% 1872 Mar 26 10:30 California 7.6
6 99% 1872 Dec 15 5:40 Washington 7.3
7 10% 1873 Nov 23 5:00 Ca-Or coast 7.3
8 3% 1886 Aug 31 2:51 So Carolina 7.3
9 1% 1899 Sep 4 0:22 Alaska 7.9
10 98% 1900 Oct 9 12:28 Alaska 7.7
11 96% 1904 Aug 27 21:56 Alaska 7.3
12 23%L 1906 Apr 18 13:12 California 7.8
13 27%F 1908 Dec 28 4:20 Italy 7.2
14 32%L 1915 Oct 3 6:52 Nevada 7.1
15 33%F 1918 Oct 11 14:14 Puerto Rico 7.5
16 7% 1918 Dec 6 8:41 Canada 7.0
17 10% 1922 Jan 31 13:17 California 7.3
18 25%F 1923 Jan 22 9:04 California 7.2
19 72%L 1923 Sep 1 2:58 Japan 7.9
20 18%F 1927 Mar 7 9:27 Japan 7.6
21 64%L 1927 May 22 22:32 China 7.9
22 70%F 1927 Nov 4 13:51 California 7.1
23 95% 1929 Nov 18 20:32 Canada 7.3
24 45%L 1932 Dec 21 6:10 Nevada 7.2
25 15% 1933 Nov 20 23:21 Canada 7.4
26 99% 1937 Jul 22 17:09 Alaska 7.3
27 99% 1939 Dec 26 23:57 Turkey 7.8
28 92% 1940 May 19 4:36 California 7.1
29 0% 1946 Apr 1 12:28 Alaska 7.3
30 3% 1947 Oct 16 2:09 Alaska 7.2
31 99% 1949 Apr 13 19:55 Washington 7.1
32 0% 1952 Jul 21 11:52 California 7.3
33 33%L 1954 Mar 29 6:17 Spain 7.9
34 56%L 1954 Dec 16 11:07 Nevada 7.1
35 83%L 1958 Apr 7 15:30 Alaska 7.3
36 38%L 1958 Jul 10 6:15 Alaska 7.7
37 99% 1959 Aug 18 6:37 Montana 7.3
38 41%F 1964 Jun 16 4:01 Japan 7.5
39 11% 1970 May 31 20:23 Peru 7.9
40 37%L 1975 Feb 4 11:36 China 7.0
41 15% 1975 Nov 29 14:47 Hawaii 7.2
42 15% 1976 Feb 4 9:01 Guatemala 7.5
43 0% 1976 Jul 27 19:42 Tangshan 7.6
44 0% 1980 Nov 8 10:27 California 7.2
45 56%L 1983 Oct 28 14:06 Idaho 7.0
46 78%F 1987 Nov 30 19:23 Alaska 7.9
47 90% 1988 Mar 6 22:35 Alaska 7.8
48 56%F 1991 Aug 17 22:17 California 7.1
49 41%L 1992 Apr 25 18:06 California 7.2
50 5% 1992 Jun 28 11:57 California 7.3
51 30%F 1992 Sep 2 0:16 Nicaragua 7.7
52 19%L 1994 Sep 1 15:15 California 7.1
53 41%L 1998 Jul 17 8:49 New Guinea 7.0
54 30%F 1999 Aug 17 0:01 Turkey 7.6
55 76%F 1999 Sep 20 17:47 Taiwan 7.7
56 38%F 1999 Oct 16 9:46 California 7.2
57 17%F 1999 Nov 12 16:57 Turkey 7.2
58 79%L 2001 Jan 13 17:33 El Salvador 7.7
59 2% 2001 Jan 26 3:16 India 7.7
60 1% 2002 Nov 3 22:12 Alaska 7.9
61 48%L 2003 Nov 17 6:43 Alaska 7.8
tchannel wrote:
> Stephen and Everyone, This is just great input....Stephen, Yes I sure
> would like to see your study expanded to include M6 and M7's. I
> printed you message. I wish I know something about Statistics.
> Thanks, Ted
FYI,, here is a 7 mag and moon phase
study,, it is easy
to mess up,, so, corrections are welcome!
Stephen
PSN Station #55
Comparing Moon Phase and 7.0 to 7.9 magnitude quakes.
From the first of the following two web sites, I located 61 quakes
in the magnitude range of 7.0 to 7.9 from the years 1812 to 2003.
From the second link I found the Moon Phase at the time of the quake.
I divided the phase into 4 approximately equal time quadrants.
The phase and time quadrants work out to about the following.
0 to 15% = New Moon quadrant
85 to 100% = Full Moon quadrant
16 to 84% = first or last quarter quadrant
For the data below, an F = First quarter, L = Last quarter quadrant
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_earthquakes
http://www.fourmilab.ch/cgi-bin/uncgi/Earth/action?opt=-m&img=Moon.evif
It sorts out to the following:
0 to 15% = 17
85 to 100% = 12
16 to 84% at F = 15
16 to 84% at L = 17
Conclusion:
Compared to the sorting of the 8 and 9 mag. quakes, the 7 mag.
events seem to start averaging out! While the New Moon favors
the Full Moon, the quarter moon quadrants have a slight edge
over the new and full moon quadrants in this study!
# Moon Year Mo. Day UTC Place Approx.
Phase Mag.
1 76%F 1812 Jan 23 15:00 Missouri 7.8
2 47%L 1823 Jun 2 8:00 Hawaii 7.0
3 99% 1857 Jan 9 16:24 California 7.9
4 78%F 1868 Apr 3 2:25 Hawaii 7.9
5 97% 1872 Mar 26 10:30 California 7.6
6 99% 1872 Dec 15 5:40 Washington 7.3
7 10% 1873 Nov 23 5:00 Ca-Or coast 7.3
8 3% 1886 Aug 31 2:51 So Carolina 7.3
9 1% 1899 Sep 4 0:22 Alaska 7.9
10 98% 1900 Oct 9 12:28 Alaska 7.7
11 96% 1904 Aug 27 21:56 Alaska 7.3
12 23%L 1906 Apr 18 13:12 California 7.8
13 27%F 1908 Dec 28 4:20 Italy 7.2
14 32%L 1915 Oct 3 6:52 Nevada 7.1
15 33%F 1918 Oct 11 14:14 Puerto Rico 7.5
16 7% 1918 Dec 6 8:41 Canada 7.0
17 10% 1922 Jan 31 13:17 California 7.3
18 25%F 1923 Jan 22 9:04 California 7.2
19 72%L 1923 Sep 1 2:58 Japan 7.9
20 18%F 1927 Mar 7 9:27 Japan 7.6
21 64%L 1927 May 22 22:32 China 7.9
22 70%F 1927 Nov 4 13:51 California 7.1
23 95% 1929 Nov 18 20:32 Canada 7.3
24 45%L 1932 Dec 21 6:10 Nevada 7.2
25 15% 1933 Nov 20 23:21 Canada 7.4
26 99% 1937 Jul 22 17:09 Alaska 7.3
27 99% 1939 Dec 26 23:57 Turkey 7.8
28 92% 1940 May 19 4:36 California 7.1
29 0% 1946 Apr 1 12:28 Alaska 7.3
30 3% 1947 Oct 16 2:09 Alaska 7.2
31 99% 1949 Apr 13 19:55 Washington 7.1
32 0% 1952 Jul 21 11:52 California 7.3
33 33%L 1954 Mar 29 6:17 Spain 7.9
34 56%L 1954 Dec 16 11:07 Nevada 7.1
35 83%L 1958 Apr 7 15:30 Alaska 7.3
36 38%L 1958 Jul 10 6:15 Alaska 7.7
37 99% 1959 Aug 18 6:37 Montana 7.3
38 41%F 1964 Jun 16 4:01 Japan 7.5
39 11% 1970 May 31 20:23 Peru 7.9
40 37%L 1975 Feb 4 11:36 China 7.0
41 15% 1975 Nov 29 14:47 Hawaii 7.2
42 15% 1976 Feb 4 9:01 Guatemala 7.5
43 0% 1976 Jul 27 19:42 Tangshan 7.6
44 0% 1980 Nov 8 10:27 California 7.2
45 56%L 1983 Oct 28 14:06 Idaho 7.0
46 78%F 1987 Nov 30 19:23 Alaska 7.9
47 90% 1988 Mar 6 22:35 Alaska 7.8
48 56%F 1991 Aug 17 22:17 California 7.1
49 41%L 1992 Apr 25 18:06 California 7.2
50 5% 1992 Jun 28 11:57 California 7.3
51 30%F 1992 Sep 2 0:16 Nicaragua 7.7
52 19%L 1994 Sep 1 15:15 California 7.1
53 41%L 1998 Jul 17 8:49 New Guinea 7.0
54 30%F 1999 Aug 17 0:01 Turkey 7.6
55 76%F 1999 Sep 20 17:47 Taiwan 7.7
56 38%F 1999 Oct 16 9:46 California 7.2
57 17%F 1999 Nov 12 16:57 Turkey 7.2
58 79%L 2001 Jan 13 17:33 El Salvador 7.7
59 2% 2001 Jan 26 3:16 India 7.7
60 1% 2002 Nov 3 22:12 Alaska 7.9
61 48%L 2003 Nov 17 6:43 Alaska 7.8
tchannel wrote:
Stephen and Everyone, This is just
great input....Stephen, Yes I sure would like to see your study
expanded to include M6 and M7's. I printed you message. I wish I
know something about Statistics.
Thanks, Ted
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