ARTICLE IN THE NY TIMES Expecting the Big One=20 !By SIMON WINCHESTER Published: January 14, 2010=20 THOUGH it can offer scant comfort to the victims of the earthquake in = Haiti, seismology is making some slight progress in its search for the = holy grail of being able to predict dreadful events like that on = Tuesday. New studies into ultra-slow-motion events deep underground = called nonvolcanic tremors are showing vague but promising signs that = the same kind of subterranean danger signals that allow us today to = forecast when a volcano is about to erupt may one day offer some warning = of the hitherto unpredictable nucleation - the explosive beginning - of = an earthquake.=20 Times Topics: EarthquakesThe most interesting studies are those that are = proceeding, slowly and expensively, in Parkfield, Calif. (as it happens, = just a little north of the road crossing where James Dean was killed in = a traffic accident nearly 55 years ago). A deep hole has been drilled = into the countryside there, directly into the San Andreas fault, which = runs for 800 miles along the junction between the North American and = Pacific tectonic plates.=20 The academic and government researchers who run the drilling program = seek to find out what happens at the precise point of contact between = two plates. It now appears highly likely that the very low impact, but = still measurable, nonvolcanic tremors that the researchers have detected = in boreholes deep beneath the San Andreas are in some way associated = with the destructive earthquakes that occur at shallower depths above = them. What the scientists would still like to determine is whether it = might be possible to discern a nonvolcanic tremor's signature in the = deep crust some useful time before a major earthquake happens far above. = This is highly relevant to the disaster in Haiti because the = Enriquillo-Plantain Garden fault, the tectonic culprit behind Tuesday's = earthquake, shares many similarities with the San Andreas: it is a = strike-slip fault of about half the length (it runs from the Dominican = Republic to Jamaica), it separates two plates (the North American and = the Caribbean), for most of its length it is simultaneously locked solid = and under severe stress, and it shears substantially every century or = so. (The last time was in 1907, in Jamaica; scientists have long warned = of a catastrophe - one day - involving Port-au-Prince.)=20 It is highly likely that the low-impact, nonvolcanic tremors measured in = the San Andreas happen in the Caribbean also. If a real correlation = between these tremors and earthquakes can be found, then science will = turn out to be truly on to something. Such a relationship has not yet = been discovered. But the tremors do seem to have some unusual bellwether = characteristics: there seems to be a correlation, for instance, between = their occurrence and such external phenomena as the tides and the phases = of the Moon. A link to movements within the Earth's crust is at least a = further possibility - and that is something that could not have been = said five years ago. Hence the faintest glimmer of hope for progress. But then what? If the geophysicists at the University of California at = Berkeley, the United States Geological Survey, the California Institute = of Technology and the Scripps Research Institute are convinced of a = correlation, and then one day detect with their deeply buried devices a = sudden swarm of nonvolcanic tremors, would they call the mayor of San = Francisco or Los Angeles and issue a warning? And would the mayors then = order a mass evacuation? And if they did, what if the scientists turned = out to be wrong?=20 These are questions well worth asking - and asking even more stridently = of a place that is somewhat less sophisticated than California. If a = similar swarm of data is noticed in the Enriquillo-Plantain Garden = fault, would geologists try to warn the citizens of a city like = Port-au-Prince? And even if the forecasts were right, would such a = warning save lives, or would it set off panics more lethal than the = earthquake itself? The branch of seismology that deals with prediction is undoubtedly in a = slightly better place than it was half a decade ago. But new questions = arise with every step toward the grail, and the answers come too slowly = to bring true comfort to anyone today, least of all the unfortunate = people of Haiti. Simon Winchester is the author of "A Crack in the Edge of the World: = America and the Great California Earthquake of 1906" and the forthcoming = "Atlantic: A Biography of the Ocean."=20ARTICLE IN THE NY TIMESExpecting the Big One
!By SIMON WINCHESTER
Published: January 14, 2010
THOUGH it can offer scant comfort to the victims of the earthquake in = Haiti,=20 seismology is making some slight progress in its search for the holy = grail of=20 being able to predict dreadful events like that on Tuesday. New studies = into=20 ultra-slow-motion events deep underground called nonvolcanic tremors are = showing=20 vague but promising signs that the same kind of subterranean danger = signals that=20 allow us today to forecast when a volcano is about to erupt may one day = offer=20 some warning of the hitherto unpredictable nucleation =97 the explosive = beginning=20 =97 of an earthquake.
Times Topics: EarthquakesThe most interesting studies are those that = are=20 proceeding, slowly and expensively, in Parkfield, Calif. (as it happens, = just a=20 little north of the road crossing where James Dean was killed in a = traffic=20 accident nearly 55 years ago). A deep hole has been drilled into the = countryside=20 there, directly into the San Andreas fault, which runs for 800 miles = along the=20 junction between the North American and Pacific tectonic plates.
The academic and government researchers who run the drilling program = seek to=20 find out what happens at the precise point of contact between two = plates. It now=20 appears highly likely that the very low impact, but still measurable,=20 nonvolcanic tremors that the researchers have detected in boreholes deep = beneath=20 the San Andreas are in some way associated with the destructive = earthquakes that=20 occur at shallower depths above them. What the scientists would still = like to=20 determine is whether it might be possible to discern a nonvolcanic = tremor=92s=20 signature in the deep crust some useful time before a major earthquake = happens=20 far above.
This is highly relevant to the disaster in Haiti because the=20 Enriquillo-Plantain Garden fault, the tectonic culprit behind = Tuesday=92s=20 earthquake, shares many similarities with the San Andreas: it is a = strike-slip=20 fault of about half the length (it runs from the Dominican Republic to = Jamaica),=20 it separates two plates (the North American and the Caribbean), for most = of its=20 length it is simultaneously locked solid and under severe stress, and it = shears=20 substantially every century or so. (The last time was in 1907, in = Jamaica;=20 scientists have long warned of a catastrophe =97 one day =97 involving=20 Port-au-Prince.)
It is highly likely that the low-impact, nonvolcanic tremors measured = in the=20 San Andreas happen in the Caribbean also. If a real correlation between = these=20 tremors and earthquakes can be found, then science will turn out to be = truly on=20 to something. Such a relationship has not yet been discovered. But the = tremors=20 do seem to have some unusual bellwether characteristics: there seems to = be a=20 correlation, for instance, between their occurrence and such external = phenomena=20 as the tides and the phases of the Moon. A link to movements within the = Earth=92s=20 crust is at least a further possibility =97 and that is something that = could not=20 have been said five years ago. Hence the faintest glimmer of hope for=20 progress.
But then what? If the geophysicists at the University of California = at=20 Berkeley, the United States Geological Survey, the California Institute = of=20 Technology and the Scripps Research Institute are convinced of a = correlation,=20 and then one day detect with their deeply buried devices a sudden swarm = of=20 nonvolcanic tremors, would they call the mayor of San Francisco or Los = Angeles=20 and issue a warning? And would the mayors then order a mass evacuation? = And if=20 they did, what if the scientists turned out to be wrong?
These are questions well worth asking =97 and asking even more = stridently of a=20 place that is somewhat less sophisticated than California. If a similar = swarm of=20 data is noticed in the Enriquillo-Plantain Garden fault, would = geologists try to=20 warn the citizens of a city like Port-au-Prince? And even if the = forecasts were=20 right, would such a warning save lives, or would it set off panics more = lethal=20 than the earthquake itself?
The branch of seismology that deals with prediction is undoubtedly in = a=20 slightly better place than it was half a decade ago. But new questions = arise=20 with every step toward the grail, and the answers come too slowly to = bring true=20 comfort to anyone today, least of all the unfortunate people of = Haiti.
Simon Winchester is the author of "A Crack in the Edge of the World: = America=20 and the Great California Earthquake of 1906" and the forthcoming = "Atlantic: A=20 Biography of the Ocean."