Thanks Mauro for your update. If there are other interesting developments in
Italy, please post them here to the PSN list. This is a good example of what
can happen if you issue / don't issue a warning without really creditable
scientific data supporting your conclusions. Here in the USA I feel the USGS
has been doing a really good job of handling both the issue of warning the
public about the dangers and then following any major event providing
information to the public. This is normally done by radio, TV and the
Internet. However, in reading your post, what I find different is the folks
here at the USGS seem to always include the likelihoods / probabilities of a
larger event occurring in their current assessments which allows the public
to decide for themselves if they should evacuate to a safer location. The
only example of a real prediction within a window of time that I can think
of was Al Lynd's USGS in Menlo Park prediction for the Parkfield, CA
earthquake. The event did occur but missed the window by about ten years. Al
took a lot of heat over this because the had alarmed the town of Parkfield
and a lot of money was spent in preparation of a large event. Eventually all
the preparation paid-off and the town withstood the earthquake. 

Please keep us posted, Steve Hammond PSN San Jose-- Aptos, CA USA 

-----Original Message-----
From: psn-l-request@.............. [mailto:psn-l-request@............... On
Behalf Of Mauro Mariotti
Sent: Sunday, July 04, 2010 9:07 AM
To: psn-l@..............
Subject: Re: J'accuse

Hi All,
since i am Italian and work on seismology field since 1997 when an 
earthquake stroke my area (Umbria-Marche) with some causalties also, i 
hope to provide clarification on what is going on.

It would be a very long story to report but i can't explain all in a 
small email, if someone wants know more simply ask here.

First of all it should be taken in account that science world and 
politics in Italy are very bounded to each other. So very often there 
are discussion (if not literally legal litigation) among different 
seismic networks for who have calculated properly this or that 
earthquake magnitude. One say 4.1 the other 3.9 ... bla bla...

Earthquake in l'Aquila stroke 6 april 2009.
It has been a mainshock after months and months of increasing magnitude 
in a very long sequence. Historical seismic records for that area 
supposed a long sequence with expected magnitude up to 7.0

The area is very active and with very very complex faults systems.

What I can say is that Giampaolo Giuliani warned the population there 
because not only he was knowing the seismological history of the place 
(that include accurate records since 1500 a.c.).
Giuliani warned also because he has a small network of detectors that 
are not exactly radon-detector but it is a more complex system not 
completely disclosed but it regards a special measurement of radon in a 
special lead-camera (not sealed of course) capable of trap only certain 
istopes, (don't ask me more on this because i don't know the details).

This earthquake sequence has been monitored also by me and others of the 
Italian Experimental Seismic Network that is the same as the PSN only is 
in Italy.

It is well known that one of the most reliable earthquake precursors (if 
i am correct it should be analyzed by a japanese named Takamori or 
soemthing like it i don't remember, sorry); that is presente when a 
sequence of small earthquake rise and rise in magnitude and frequency 
during time until suddenly the sequence of events stops without have 
decreased the magnitude. In this case from up to 72 hours you must 
expect a "mainshock" of magnitude from 1 to 1.5 magnitude over the 
higher magnitude observed in the foreshocks.
This is exactly what happened in l'aquila.
So this earthquake could be forecasted.
But almost nobody is complaining this specifically.
Almost every people in Abruzzo (L'Aquila's region) is complaing that the 
evening of the 5th april the Civil Defense was going up and down on the 
villages telling:
"Please go back home, inside home.
There is no concern, please leave the roads free, there is no alarm for 
earthquakes."

This politic to keep people calm and not induce panic is common custom 
and fashion since tenths of years in Italy.

The main question of the people now is:
IF THE EARTHQUAKE CANNOT BE FORECASTED WHAY CIVIL DEFENSE TOLD PEOPLE TO 
GO INSIDE HOUSES EXPLAINING THAT NO EARTHQUAKE WILL HAPPENS?
If there is no way to forecast earthquake you cannot forecast if it will 
happen NOR if it would NOT happen.

And now the people are upset because 300 causualties, among these many 
young students in the university that called the families telling: do 
not worry, the civil defense told us there is NO concern. So I remain 
here because tomorrow i have exams etc. etc...

This is what happened in L'Aquila.
There is no arrogance among families.
Only upset against a corrupted and lobbiest scientific class of people.

Technical explaination:
The region surrounding l'Aquila is a very strange area sismologically 
speaking, it is very active in seismic and also present a VERY STRONG 
effect of site amplification.

I write a link of one interesting article wrote by a friend of mine that 
explain how is the underground near l'aquila and explain why so many 
damages happened even if recent buildings.

You can download the article clicking here:

http://www.infoeq.it/LF_AMPLIFICATION_AQUILA.PDF

Best regards
Mauro





Il 04/07/2010 12:13, Tangazazen@....... ha scritto:
>
> Hi All,
>
>       I do not know if all members are aware of the  events unfolding in
> Italy. It seems the Italian seismologists are to be  prosecute for man
> slaughter for failing to predict the earthquake at L'Aquila.  This is in
spite of
> one  Giampaolo Giuliani touring the town a  week before with a loud
speaker
> van warning the residents. He was  subsequently arrested.
> It is times like this that I feel that mankind has been very arrogant to
> bestow on himself the title of Homo Sapien.
>
>
> Martin Page
>
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