PSN-L Email List Message

Subject: Re: J'accuse
From: Mauro Mariotti mariotti@.........
Date: Mon, 05 Jul 2010 09:30:11 +0200


Hello,

Italy is probably the country with the highest seismic risk in the world.
Seismic risk is not related to intenstity of expected earthquakes but it 
is a result of some factors: frequency, intensity and distribution of 
expected earthquake multiplied by age of building and the inverse of 
building robustness.

Italy is an old country with many many building that cannot be simply 
demolished and rebuilt with new tecniques. Churches, castles, country 
houses belongs to the artistic and historical inheritage that is 
protected and cannot be modified.

Of course popular houses can be modified and rebuilt with modern 
approaches. Not easy to do before an earthquake, almost nobody apply 
modifications to houses (getting out money by themselfes).

So good public education and proper scientific and civil defense 
warnings are a key to solve this puzzle.

I like what USGS is doing in the last years.
Doing this in italy is almost impossible due to politics and crazy 
people that act like catholic church to Galileo.

The opinion I have here after all this events is:

1) Inform clearly people about dangerousness of his area

2) Force proper building regulation

3) Recomend guidelines to be safe inside safe building (fix fornitures 
and shelf to avoid stuffs falls on your head during a shake)

4) Inform (not warn) population that a shake sequence is in act in a 
certain area.

5) If the sequence is serious and the historical record tells special 
care civil defense should make available tents in open spaces where 
people that are afraid to sleep inside house due to the house ageness 
can stay at night.

Doing this earthquake forecast would become in time like weather 
forecast. Please don't exchange or overlap the definition "earthquake 
forecast" with "earthquake prediction".

Earthquakes cannot be predicted, but can be forecasted.

best regards
Mauro



Il 04/07/2010 21:16, Stephen Hammond ha scritto:
> Thanks Mauro for your update. If there are other interesting developments in
> Italy, please post them here to the PSN list. This is a good example of what
> can happen if you issue / don't issue a warning without really creditable
> scientific data supporting your conclusions. Here in the USA I feel the USGS
> has been doing a really good job of handling both the issue of warning the
> public about the dangers and then following any major event providing
> information to the public. This is normally done by radio, TV and the
> Internet. However, in reading your post, what I find different is the folks
> here at the USGS seem to always include the likelihoods / probabilities of a
> larger event occurring in their current assessments which allows the public
> to decide for themselves if they should evacuate to a safer location. The
> only example of a real prediction within a window of time that I can think
> of was Al Lynd's USGS in Menlo Park prediction for the Parkfield, CA
> earthquake. The event did occur but missed the window by about ten years. Al
> took a lot of heat over this because the had alarmed the town of Parkfield
> and a lot of money was spent in preparation of a large event. Eventually all
> the preparation paid-off and the town withstood the earthquake.
>
> Please keep us posted, Steve Hammond PSN San Jose-- Aptos, CA USA
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: psn-l-request@.............. [mailto:psn-l-request@............... On
> Behalf Of Mauro Mariotti
> Sent: Sunday, July 04, 2010 9:07 AM
> To: psn-l@..............
> Subject: Re: J'accuse
>
> Hi All,
> since i am Italian and work on seismology field since 1997 when an
> earthquake stroke my area (Umbria-Marche) with some causalties also, i
> hope to provide clarification on what is going on.
>
> It would be a very long story to report but i can't explain all in a
> small email, if someone wants know more simply ask here.
>
> First of all it should be taken in account that science world and
> politics in Italy are very bounded to each other. So very often there
> are discussion (if not literally legal litigation) among different
> seismic networks for who have calculated properly this or that
> earthquake magnitude. One say 4.1 the other 3.9 ... bla bla...
>
> Earthquake in l'Aquila stroke 6 april 2009.
> It has been a mainshock after months and months of increasing magnitude
> in a very long sequence. Historical seismic records for that area
> supposed a long sequence with expected magnitude up to 7.0
>
> The area is very active and with very very complex faults systems.
>
> What I can say is that Giampaolo Giuliani warned the population there
> because not only he was knowing the seismological history of the place
> (that include accurate records since 1500 a.c.).
> Giuliani warned also because he has a small network of detectors that
> are not exactly radon-detector but it is a more complex system not
> completely disclosed but it regards a special measurement of radon in a
> special lead-camera (not sealed of course) capable of trap only certain
> istopes, (don't ask me more on this because i don't know the details).
>
> This earthquake sequence has been monitored also by me and others of the
> Italian Experimental Seismic Network that is the same as the PSN only is
> in Italy.
>
> It is well known that one of the most reliable earthquake precursors (if
> i am correct it should be analyzed by a japanese named Takamori or
> soemthing like it i don't remember, sorry); that is presente when a
> sequence of small earthquake rise and rise in magnitude and frequency
> during time until suddenly the sequence of events stops without have
> decreased the magnitude. In this case from up to 72 hours you must
> expect a "mainshock" of magnitude from 1 to 1.5 magnitude over the
> higher magnitude observed in the foreshocks.
> This is exactly what happened in l'aquila.
> So this earthquake could be forecasted.
> But almost nobody is complaining this specifically.
> Almost every people in Abruzzo (L'Aquila's region) is complaing that the
> evening of the 5th april the Civil Defense was going up and down on the
> villages telling:
> "Please go back home, inside home.
> There is no concern, please leave the roads free, there is no alarm for
> earthquakes."
>
> This politic to keep people calm and not induce panic is common custom
> and fashion since tenths of years in Italy.
>
> The main question of the people now is:
> IF THE EARTHQUAKE CANNOT BE FORECASTED WHAY CIVIL DEFENSE TOLD PEOPLE TO
> GO INSIDE HOUSES EXPLAINING THAT NO EARTHQUAKE WILL HAPPENS?
> If there is no way to forecast earthquake you cannot forecast if it will
> happen NOR if it would NOT happen.
>
> And now the people are upset because 300 causualties, among these many
> young students in the university that called the families telling: do
> not worry, the civil defense told us there is NO concern. So I remain
> here because tomorrow i have exams etc. etc...
>
> This is what happened in L'Aquila.
> There is no arrogance among families.
> Only upset against a corrupted and lobbiest scientific class of people.
>
> Technical explaination:
> The region surrounding l'Aquila is a very strange area sismologically
> speaking, it is very active in seismic and also present a VERY STRONG
> effect of site amplification.
>
> I write a link of one interesting article wrote by a friend of mine that
> explain how is the underground near l'aquila and explain why so many
> damages happened even if recent buildings.
>
> You can download the article clicking here:
>
> http://www.infoeq.it/LF_AMPLIFICATION_AQUILA.PDF
>
> Best regards
> Mauro
>
>
>
>
>
> Il 04/07/2010 12:13, Tangazazen@....... ha scritto:
>>
>> Hi All,
>>
>>        I do not know if all members are aware of the  events unfolding in
>> Italy. It seems the Italian seismologists are to be  prosecute for man
>> slaughter for failing to predict the earthquake at L'Aquila.  This is in
> spite of
>> one  Giampaolo Giuliani touring the town a  week before with a loud
> speaker
>> van warning the residents. He was  subsequently arrested.
>> It is times like this that I feel that mankind has been very arrogant to
>> bestow on himself the title of Homo Sapien.
>>
>>
>> Martin Page
>>
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