PSN-L Email List Message

Subject: Re: Representative stations (and IRIS station list)
From: Dan Bolser dan.bolser@.........
Date: Wed, 9 Mar 2011 11:45:16 +0000

Hi Anthony,

I've been struggling to get a dataset together for the proposed
earthquake prediction competition (outlined previously), but I've been
plagued by doubts along the lines of those outlined by Chris below
(basically, quakes just happen, with no regularity and no warning).
Its also been a pain wrestling information from experts, who when
(rarely) replying have had a similar, generally negative responses
(e.g. "You should really read about predictions...").

HOWEVER, I have worked out the query system for retrieving
seismographs from the database, and I can (I think) put together a
large testing and training set along the lines I proposed (no specific
feedback on that yet either).

Do you think we should push on regardless, in the hope that any
endeavour of this nature will have benefits? e.g. If we could A)
attract media attention to the problem and thereby, B) educate a
larger audience in earthquake and prediction basics and C) make some
money for charity...

I can't shake the (romantic?) idea that perhaps if enough people look
at this problem, maybe something new may come out of the data ...
Should we give up because the experts say it's impossible?

Let me know what you think,

On 9 March 2011 02:09, Christopher Chapman  wrote:
> Hi all,
> I've been looking to collect a dataset of seismograms for an
> 'earthquake prediction competition' idea (see below for more
> information), and struggling quite a lot along the way!
> "
> Hi Dan,
> =A0=A0=A0=A0 Sorry, but there is NO chance of this simplistic approach su=
cceeding. I
> suggest that you buy or borrow a copy of "Predicting the Unpredictable: T=
> Tumultuous Science of Earthquake Prediction", by Susan Hough. It is not
> expensive,=A0well worth reading and describes most of the previous attemp=
> and ideas on Earthquake Prediction!
> =A0=A0=A0 Earthquakes are sudden slip=A0movements in the Earth's crust, s=
> between ground level and 700 km down. Some are volcanic in origin, but mo=
> are due to the 7 major and 8 minor=A0Earth's Tectonic Plates moving relat=
> to one another or diving under each other,=A0at rates of=A0typically 0 to=
100 mm
> per year. The quakes are often on fault lines, but these may be hundreds =
> miles long and there are thousands of them. Some large quakes do repeat, =
> there may be anything up to several hundred years in between them. Only
> quakes greater than M6.5 can be detected all over the Earth. Some
> large=A0quakes just go bang, without any precursor quakes.
> =A0=A0=A0 Regards,
> =A0=A0=A0 Chris Chapman

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