PSN-L Email List Message
Subject: Re: CME's result in seismic activity
From: Dick Habegger amej@.............
Date: Sun, 13 Mar 2011 19:02:13 -0700
Thank you to all who contributed to my question.
Being in field service technical support, I must use observations to
begin my work.
It was when I continued to receive e-mails from both psn and spaceweather,
that caused me to question the events.
Of course, being active in Southern California also brings a need rather
than just curiosity.
I remember one person stating that the volcanoes in Hawaii were the
pressure vents for the West Coast.
When they stopped; beware California! Now, we see more vents. Oh well, I
will avoid another question.
I truly appreciate the dialog. I shall go back into the shadows to read
your reports.
I gave up installing a seismograph at my home due to time, money and age.
The offer Les LaZar made was very kind. I wanted to jump at it, but had
to look at my life style.
I had to decline the offer. I hope someone else can take it up as it
would be fun to do.
Regards,
Dick Habegger
Phelan, CA
On 3/13/2011 12:08 AM, Dave Nelson wrote:
> Hi Jon, Mark and Dick
>
> For one of the few times ;) I would have to agree with Jon. Altho I
> couldnt state
> an absolute and utter NO. I would have to say that the possibility of
> correlation between
> large quakes and CME's is dubious at best, and I think my chances of
> winning the lottery
> stand far higher probability. I have been studying quakes and solar
> activity for some 40 years
> now.
> If there was a correlation then there should be an obvious increase
> in seismic activity during
> every solar max and a drop off of activity during solar minimum, as
> CME increase in size and
> number then decline. That just isnt supported by the data.
> when you look at seismic activity even over the last 100 - 200 yrs.
> the rate of large events doesnt
> change, regardless of what solar activity is doing. There is still on
> avg 1 x M8+ event / yr and
> ~ 15 x M7 - 7.9 events/ yr.
> During the Maunder Minimum, the period roughly spanning 1645 to 1715
> when sunspots and
> therefore CME's were next to non existant the world was still shaken
> by many huge and or
> damaging quakes eg.....
>
> *1106 1638St. Lawrence Valley region. US-Canada Bdr
> *12021645Quito, Ecuador,
> 13051647Santiago, Chile, 1,000 Dths
> 1662Anhwei, China, 300,000 Dths
> *050216632230UT 7.0St. Lawrence River, Canada, damage, MMI X
> 12051664 7.3Ica, Peru, Fatalities 400
> NOV1667Shemakha, Caucasia, 80,000 Dths
> 17081668 8.0Anatolia, Turkey, 8,000 Dths
> *17011670Cntrl Europe
> 04061679Caucasia
> *20101687 8.5Lima, Peru, 600 Dths
> 07061692Jamaica, Fatalities 2000 from quake and tsunami
> 11011693 7.5Sicily-Italy area, ~60,000 Deaths
> 26011700~9Cascadia Subduction Zone offshr Oregon, USA, Maj
> tsunami crossed the Pacific and did damage in Japan
> *31121703Tokyo-Odowara area, Japan, >5,000 Deaths
> MY or JN 1710Algiers
> 03021716Medea, Algeria, 20,000 Dths
>
>
> During 1989 which was one of the stronger solar max's of recent times
> with the largest X class flares
> ever recorded a couple > X20 there was still only 1 x M8+ that year
> the M8.2 of Macquarie Island
> (an aside ... that was the first M8 I recorded on my gear, I lived
> ~900km to the nth)
> 1989 saw only 4 x M7 - 7.9 events a very quiet year for big quakes !!!
> Lets take into account a little time lag between CME's hitting earth
> and seismic activity occurring
> 1990 was an even quieter year with no events hitting M8 and about the
> same # of M7's as 1989
>
> BUT... We mustn't forget you are purporting INSTANT effects as you
> were blaming the recent 2-3 weeks
> of solar activity for a immediate big event!!!! .... sorry it just
> doesnt wash
>
> These CME's and flares of the last few weeks have been tiny in
> comparison to the big stuff, the sun only
> "clearing its throat"
>
> cheers
> Dave
>
>
> At 06:23 PM 13/03/2011, you wrote:
>> Hi Mark,
>>
>> Given the number of earthquakes / number of solar flares there is no
>> correlation at all. Most of the years 2007 to 2011 there where few to
>> none sun spots and even fewer solar flares. That I know because I
>> monitor the sunspots also for solar flares. You even have longer period
>> in history known as little ice age where there was few to none sun
>> spots, even in that period a large earthquakes are known to have
>> happened.
>>
>> This study does not keep up with the facts in this matter. That is a
>> fact. In fact, I also see that this study is full of errors, flaws and
>> wrong assumsions. It only provies sunspots = earthquakes but does not
>> give a time scale for it and with that removes the data that proves that
>> this study is in fact wrong.
>>
>> Regards,
>> Jón Frímann.
>>
>> On sun, 2011-03-13 at 19:33 +1300, Mark Robinson wrote:
>> > Jón,
>> >
>> > http://arxiv.org/pdf/cond-mat/0602208 indicates that solar flares and
>> > earthquakes share very similar distributions but does not examine
>> correlation
>> > between the two.
>> >
>> > It is easy to theorise that solar flares, which have a large magnetic
>> > component, impacting on earth could disturb the big magnet in the
>> middle.
>> > Remember that aurora happen at the poles. The deeper an earthquake
>> the lower
>> > the frequencies that we see on the surface. Without doing any
>> formal analysis,
>> > my own observation is that eigenmode activity often precedes large
>> quakes, as
>> > it did in the case of the Japanese event. Similarly impacts of CMEs
>> often
>> > precede eigenmode activity.
>> >
>> > Dismissing scientific curiosity out of hand does you no credit,
>> perhaps you
>> > could cite some references for your arguments. Some reasoning might
>> be nice too
>> > especially as I seem to remember you yourself saying many similar
>> things here
>> > over the years.
>> >
>> > The position that "earthquakes can't be predicted therefore anyone
>> who wishes
>> > to explore the possibility is nuts" is closer to religion than science.
>> >
>> > Mark
>> >
>> >
>> > On 13/03/11 18:48, Jón Frímann wrote:
>> > > Hi,
>> > >
>> > > The answer is still no.
>> > >
>> > > Regards,
>> > > Jón Frímann.
>> > >
>> > > On lau, 2011-03-12 at 21:41 -0800, Dick Habegger wrote:
>> > >> Thank you for your reply, Jon. I value your comments.
>> > >>
>> > >> However, USGS spent many years in denial that there was a
>> relationship
>> > >> to earthquakes on the opposite sides of the Earth.
>> > >> We, in our HAM Seismic Precursor Net decided that there was a
>> relationship.
>> > >> Now, Kate Hutton, et al, at JPL have expressed this relationship.
>> > >> Also, they are warning of a major Earthquake in the California
>> region.
>> > >> This is a departure of previous comments and answers to questions.
>> > >> My discussions with Waverly Pearson at Golden, had other similar
>> > >> comments; especially with the New Madrid Fault.
>> > >>
>> > >> Also, Jim Berkland was ridiculed with his Dog and Cat Reports
>> (missing
>> > >> in want-ads).
>> > >> And, his idea of Full/New Moon stress triggering stress lines.
>> > >> Now, these are discussed in many quarters and countries.
>> > >>
>> > >> Therefore, I suggest more thought and study with CME's.
>> > >> Why is do both happen I am a believer that there is nothing as
>> > >> "coincidence". Only the rules have not been developed yet.
>> > >> I will leave it at that point since I am far below the talents
>> of this
>> > >> group.
>> > >> Just think, the island of Japan moved 8 feet! Try that at home,
>> folks!
>> > >>
>> > >> Dick Habegger
>> > >> Phelan, CA
>> > >>
>> > >> On 3/12/2011 8:12 PM, Jón Frímann wrote:
>> > >>> Hi,
>> > >>>
>> > >>> The answer is no.
>> > >>>
>> > >>> Regards,
>> > >>> Jón Frímann.
>> > >>>
>> > >>> On lau, 2011-03-12 at 20:07 -0800, Dick Habegger wrote:
>> > >>>>> AURORAS IN THE USA: A coronal mass ejection (CME) hit Earth's
>> > >>>>> magnetic field on March 10th. The impact set off a G1-class
>> > >>>>> geomagnetic storm and sent Northern Lights rippling over the
>> > >>>>> US-Canadian border into states such as Wisconsin, Minnesota, and
>> > >>>>> Michigan. Sky watchers who hadn't seen auroras in years captured
>> > >>>>> beautiful photos of green and purple streamers. This is
>> another sign
>> > >>>>> that Solar Cycle 24 is heating up.
>> Checkhttp://spaceweather.com for
>> > >>>>> photos and updates.
>> > >>>> I have been receiving reports from spaceweather.com that the
>> Sun has
>> > >>>> been having major sunspot activity lately. The same period has
>> seen
>> > >>>> major earthquakes on Earth. Is there a correlation between the
>> events?
>> > >>>>
>> > >>>> Dick Habegger
>> > >>>> Phelan, CA
>> >
Thank you to all who contributed to my question.
Being in field service technical support, I must use observations to
begin my work.
It was when I continued to receive e-mails from both psn and
spaceweather,
that caused me to question the events.
Of course, being active in Southern California also brings a need
rather than just curiosity.
I remember one person stating that the volcanoes in Hawaii were the
pressure vents for the West Coast.
When they stopped; beware California! Now, we see more vents. Oh
well, I will avoid another question.
I truly appreciate the dialog. I shall go back into the shadows to
read your reports.
I gave up installing a seismograph at my home due to time, money and
age.
The offer Les LaZar made was very kind. I wanted to jump at it, but
had to look at my life style.
I had to decline the offer. I hope someone else can take it up as it
would be fun to do.
Regards,
Dick Habegger
Phelan, CA
On 3/13/2011 12:08 AM, Dave Nelson wrote:
Hi Jon, Mark and Dick
For one of the few times ;) I would have to agree with
Jon. Altho I couldnt state
an absolute and utter NO. I would have to say that the possibility
of correlation between
large quakes and CME's is dubious at best, and I think my chances
of
winning the lottery
stand far higher probability. I have been studying quakes and
solar
activity for some 40 years
now.
If there was a correlation then there should be an obvious
increase in seismic activity during
every solar max and a drop off of activity during solar minimum,
as CME
increase in size and
number then decline. That just isnt supported by the data.
when you look at seismic activity even over the last 100 - 200
yrs. the
rate of large events doesnt
change, regardless of what solar activity is doing. There is
still
on avg 1 x M8+ event / yr and
~ 15 x M7 - 7.9 events/ yr.
During the Maunder Minimum, the period roughly spanning 1645 to
1715 when
sunspots and
therefore CME's were next to non existant the world was still
shaken by
many huge and or
damaging quakes eg.....
1106
1638 St.
Lawrence
Valley region. US-Canada Bdr
1202 1645 Quito,
Ecuador,
1305 1647 Santiago,
Chile,
1,000 Dths
1662 Anhwei,
China,
300,000 Dths
0502 1663 2230UT
7.0 St.
Lawrence River, Canada, damage, MMI X
1205 1664
7.3 Ica,
Peru, Fatalities 400
NOV 1667 Shemakha,
Caucasia,
80,000 Dths
1708 1668
8.0 Anatolia,
Turkey, 8,000 Dths
1701 1670 Cntrl
Europe
0406 1679 Caucasia
2010 1687
8.5 Lima,
Peru, 600 Dths
0706 1692 Jamaica,
Fatalities
2000 from quake and tsunami
1101 1693
7.5
Sicily-Italy area,
~60,000 Deaths
2601 1700 ~9 Cascadia
Subduction
Zone offshr Oregon, USA, Maj
tsunami
crossed
the Pacific and did damage in Japan
3112 1703 Tokyo-Odowara
area,
Japan, >5,000 Deaths
MY or JN
1710 Algiers
0302 1716 Medea,
Algeria,
20,000 Dths
During 1989 which was one of the stronger solar max's of
recent
times with the largest X class flares
ever recorded a couple > X20 there was still only 1 x M8+ that
year the M8.2 of Macquarie Island
(an aside ... that was the first M8 I recorded on my gear, I lived
~900km
to the nth)
1989 saw only 4 x M7 - 7.9 events a very quiet year for big
quakes
!!!
Lets take into account a little time lag between CME's hitting
earth and seismic activity occurring
1990 was an even quieter year with no events hitting M8 and about
the
same # of M7's as 1989
BUT... We mustn't forget you are purporting INSTANT effects as you
were
blaming the recent 2-3 weeks
of solar activity for a immediate big event!!!! ....
sorry it just doesnt wash
These CME's and flares of the last few weeks have been tiny in
comparison
to the big stuff, the sun only
"clearing its throat"
cheers
Dave
At 06:23 PM 13/03/2011, you wrote:
Hi Mark,
Given the number of earthquakes / number of solar flares there
is no
correlation at all. Most of the years 2007 to 2011 there where
few
to
none sun spots and even fewer solar flares. That I know because
I
monitor the sunspots also for solar flares. You even have longer
period
in history known as little ice age where there was few to none
sun
spots, even in that period a large earthquakes are known to have
happened.
This study does not keep up with the facts in this matter. That
is a
fact. In fact, I also see that this study is full of errors,
flaws
and
wrong assumsions. It only provies sunspots = earthquakes but
does
not
give a time scale for it and with that removes the data that
proves
that
this study is in fact wrong.
Regards,
Jón Frímann.
On sun, 2011-03-13 at 19:33 +1300, Mark Robinson wrote:
> Jón,
>
>
http://arxiv.org/pdf/cond-mat/0602208
indicates that solar flares and
> earthquakes share very similar distributions but does not
examine correlation
> between the two.
>
> It is easy to theorise that solar flares, which have a
large magnetic
> component, impacting on earth could disturb the big magnet
in the middle.
> Remember that aurora happen at the poles. The deeper an
earthquake the lower
> the frequencies that we see on the surface. Without doing
any formal analysis,
> my own observation is that eigenmode activity often
precedes large quakes, as
> it did in the case of the Japanese event. Similarly impacts
of CMEs often
> precede eigenmode activity.
>
> Dismissing scientific curiosity out of hand does you no
credit, perhaps you
> could cite some references for your arguments. Some
reasoning might be nice too
> especially as I seem to remember you yourself saying many
similar things here
> over the years.
>
> The position that "earthquakes can't be predicted therefore
anyone who wishes
> to explore the possibility is nuts" is closer to religion
than science.
>
> Mark
>
>
> On 13/03/11 18:48, Jón Frímann wrote:
> > Hi,
> >
> > The answer is still no.
> >
> > Regards,
> > Jón Frímann.
> >
> > On lau, 2011-03-12 at 21:41 -0800, Dick Habegger
wrote:
> >> Thank you for your reply, Jon. I value your
comments.
> >>
> >> However, USGS spent many years in denial that
there was a relationship
> >> to earthquakes on the opposite sides of the Earth.
> >> We, in our HAM Seismic Precursor Net decided that
there was a relationship.
> >> Now, Kate Hutton, et al, at JPL have expressed
this relationship.
> >> Also, they are warning of a major Earthquake in
the California region.
> >> This is a departure of previous comments and
answers to questions.
> >> My discussions with Waverly Pearson at Golden, had
other similar
> >> comments; especially with the New Madrid Fault.
> >>
> >> Also, Jim Berkland was ridiculed with his Dog and
Cat Reports (missing
> >> in want-ads).
> >> And, his idea of Full/New Moon stress triggering
stress lines.
> >> Now, these are discussed in many quarters and
countries.
> >>
> >> Therefore, I suggest more thought and study with
CME's.
> >> Why is do both happen I am a believer that there
is nothing as
> >> "coincidence". Only the rules have not been
developed yet.
> >> I will leave it at that point since I am far below
the talents of this
> >> group.
> >> Just think, the island of Japan moved 8 feet! Try
that at home, folks!
> >>
> >> Dick Habegger
> >> Phelan, CA
> >>
> >> On 3/12/2011 8:12 PM, Jón Frímann wrote:
> >>> Hi,
> >>>
> >>> The answer is no.
> >>>
> >>> Regards,
> >>> Jón Frímann.
> >>>
> >>> On lau, 2011-03-12 at 20:07 -0800, Dick
Habegger wrote:
> >>>>> AURORAS IN THE USA: A coronal mass
ejection (CME) hit Earth's
> >>>>> magnetic field on March 10th. The
impact set off a G1-class
> >>>>> geomagnetic storm and sent Northern
Lights rippling over the
> >>>>> US-Canadian border into states such as
Wisconsin, Minnesota, and
> >>>>> Michigan. Sky watchers who hadn't seen
auroras in years captured
> >>>>> beautiful photos of green and purple
streamers. This is another sign
> >>>>> that Solar Cycle 24 is heating up.
Checkhttp://spaceweather.com for
> >>>>> photos and updates.
> >>>> I have been receiving reports from
spaceweather.com that the Sun has
> >>>> been having major sunspot activity lately.
The same period has seen
> >>>> major earthquakes on Earth. Is there a
correlation between the events?
> >>>>
> >>>> Dick Habegger
> >>>> Phelan, CA
>
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