From: Mauro Mariotti 

To: psnlist 
Sent: Wed, 24 Oct 2012 7:34
Subject: Fwd: Re: L'aquila quake


Hello,

there is a video on YouTube: It is in Italian
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3DSUwEdlAh1Fw
 It isn't about the l'aquila quake, but what Prof. Boschi said about a
different area in 2008, the area in question is the Padania region
(Emilia-Romagna) where a major earthquake happened the last May and
where also a really really bad effect of soil liquefaction happened.

This is how they talk and think...
Do you still believe they don't should be brought to the court ?=20

Hi Mauro,

    Have you heard of the definition of a Camel ? It is a Horse - as design=
ed by a Committee !=20
And here we are concerned about the behavior of a particular Committee.=20

    Could you check up on the number and magnitudes of quakes experienced w=
ithin say 40 km=20
of L'Aquila in the past 200 years, please ? I know that some parts of Italy=
 are much more=20
seismically active than others, but I have no knowledge of quakes in this p=
articular area. Have there=20
ANY previous examples of a swarm of moderate level quakes being followed by=
 major quake ?=20

     I just can't see us EVER having a similar problem here in the UK ! If =
I was worried about quakes and=20
decided to camp out away from any buildings, or to leave the area, but was =
told by a Defence Department=20
Official that there was no danger and that I should go home, I would polite=
ly thank him for his kind=20
advice and then ignore it. Only if he tried to insist would I ask him what =
his expertise was and, on=20
learning that he was merely an Official, tell him to 'get lost'. This would=
 be a common reaction.=20
    Thinking about this attitude, the whole population in the UK are more t=
han a bit sceptical about=20
believing weather forecasts - with VERY good reason ! We live on the juncti=
on between the Atlantic and=20
the Continental weather systems and as the weather is also sensitive to the=
 terrain, it is very difficult to=20
predict accurately. The Met Office still occasionally gets the forecast bad=
ly wrong. A fine sunny day may=20
be forecast, but I still have a good look at the sky in the morning ! This =
distrust plays over in the 'mind' of=20
the public into ANY official pronouncements !  =20

    Now, there is NO SCIENTIFIC EVIDENCE that major earthquakes can be pred=
icted at any particular=20
time, in spite of very considerable efforts having been made to predict the=
m, so the opinion that there=20
was NO SIGNIFICANT DANGER seems to have been PERFECTLY CORRECT. You may hav=
e a=20
geological fault line which has historically failed every 50 years 'on aver=
age',=20
but you CAN'T predict the day, the week or the year when this will happen. =
And=20
you CAN'T install devices to measure rock stresses down to 100 miles underg=
round !
     In largely protestant countries, we don't tend to believe the myth tha=
t ANYONE is INFALLABLE !=20

    What is the 'chain of command' and relationship of authority between th=
e various Italian departments=20
involved, please ? I would have expected the seismologists to have been an =
advisory committee and=20
the Defence Department to have been responsible for taking decisions and in=
teracting with the public.=20
Have any members of the Defence Department been prosecuted, please ? The se=
ismologists are=20
VERY UNLIKELY to have been patrolling the streets of D'Aquila themselves te=
lling people not to worry=20
and to go home !=20
    Have any transcripts of the trial been released yet ? My point is that =
we do not seem to have any=20
firm information yet on who said what to whom and when.=20
    I understand from the TV recording that the official seismology body in=
 Italy may have been giving=20
some dubious 'opinions', but the scope of this legal action against the mem=
bers seems to be quite=20
disproportionate. It could be reasonable to prosecute the head of a committ=
ee if he has failed to carry=20
out his duties, or has done them corruptly.=20
    However, the nominally controversial 2008 statement by Professor Boschi=
 that there was no risk to=20
a gas storage project at Mirandola from foreseeable earthquakes could well =
be correct. Gas storage=20
may be done in porous, dome shaped rock formations many hundreds of metres =
underground which=20
are capped by impervious rock. So long as a fault line does not intersect t=
his dome, it should not be=20
damaged by quakes, even ones which may flatten local buildings.=20
    Explaining this to the general public may be a bit more difficult.=20
     You say "He (Boschi) said all measurement was made and no danger was e=
xpected for that area=20
EVEN IF A MAJOR QUAKE COULD OCCUR". Now a major quake would certainly be ex=
pected to=20
damage buildings, so the statement clearly refers to the gas storage dome u=
nderground.
    In May 2012 there was a major quake resulting in thousands of damaged h=
ouses and >10 fatalities.
I have not heard of any update on this.
     I will be very interested to hear the result of the appeal against the=
 prosecution. The logic of this conviction =20
escapes me. I doubt if Mauro's arguments can be upheld.=20

    Regards,

    Chris Chapman

Il 22/10/2012 22:23, Antonio Moura ha scritto:
> I totally agree with Steinar. I am think that part of what is essential
> is to strive to make clear of what really is the probabilistic nature
> and the uncertainty associated with such natural phenomena. Lawyers and
> judges and general public sometimes have a great lack of knowledge in
> Scientific matters and the little science they can grasp is of a
> Deterministic, 2+2=3D4, nature. In Portugal two Scientists published an
> interesting book called "How to Talk to Reporters without being on the
> Verge of a Nervous Breakdown" ... I think this also should apply to
> lawyers and such "species" alike  .. However I did not expect this type
> of judgement from a country with such a tradition in seismology and
> science. I guess that having an "escape goat" in certain troubled times
> must speak higher.
>
> Rui Moura

=20
=20
=20
=20
=20
=20
=20
=20
=20
=20
=20
=20
=20
=20
=20
=20
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From: Mauro Mariotti <ma=
riotti@.........>







































































To: psnlist <psnlist@..............>




































Sent: Wed, 24 Oct 2012 7:34




































Subject: Fwd: Re: L'aquila quake





















































































































Hello,

there is a video on YouTube:=
 It is in Italian
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3DSUwEdlAh1Fw
 It isn't about the l'aquila quake, but what Prof. Boschi said about a
different area in 2008, the area in question is the Padania region
(Emilia-Romagna) where a major earthquake happened the last May and
where also a really really bad effect of soil liquefaction happened.

This is how they talk and think...
Do you still be=
lieve they don't should be brought to the court ? 

Hi Mauro,

 =
   Have you heard of the definition of a Camel ? It is a Horse - as designe=
d by a Committee ! 

And here we are concerned about the behavior of a p=
articular Committee. 


    Could you check up on the number and magnitudes of quakes experienced w=
ithin say 40 km 

of L'Aquila in the past 200 years, please ? I know =
that some parts of Italy are much more 

seismically active than others, but I have no knowledge of quakes in this p=
articular area. Have there 

ANY previous examples of a swarm of moderate level quakes being followed by major quake ? 


     I just can't see us E=
VER having a similar problem here in the UK ! If I =
was worried about quakes and 

decided to camp out away from any buildings, or to leave the area, but was =
told by a Defence Department 

Official that there was no danger =
and that I should go home, I would politely thank him for his kind <=
br>
advice and then ignore it. Only if he tried to insist would I ask him what his expertise was and, o=
n 

learning that he was merely an Official, tell him t=
o 'get lost'. This would be=
 a common reaction. 
    Thi=
nking about this attitude, the whole population in the UK are more than a b=
it sceptical about 

believing weather forecasts - with VERY good reason ! We live on the junction =
between the Atlantic and 

the Continental weather systems and as the weather is also=
 sensitive to the terrain, it is very difficult to 

predict accurately. The Met Office still occasional=
ly gets the forecast badly wrong. A fine sunny day =
may 

be forecast, but I still have a go=
od look at the sky in the morning =
! This distrust plays over in the 'mi=
nd' of 

the public into ANY official pronouncements !  =
; 


    Now, there is NO SCIENTIFIC EVIDENCE that major ear=
thquakes can be predicted at any particular 

time, in spite of very considerable efforts having been made to predict the=
m, so the opinion that there 

was NO SIGNIFICANT DANGER seems to have been PERFECTLY COR=
RECT. You may have a 
geological fault line which has historically failed every 50 years 'on aver=
age', 

but you CAN'T predict the day, the week or the year when this will happen. And 

you CAN'T install devices to measure rock stresses down to 100 miles underg=
round !
=
     In largely protestant countries, w=
e don't tend to believe the myth that ANYONE is INFALLABLE=
 ! =



    What is the 'chain of command' and relationship of aut=
hority between the various Italian departments 

involved, please ? I would have expected the seismologists to have been an =
advisory committee and 

the Defence Department to have been respo=
nsible for taking decisions and interacting with the public. 

Have any members of the Defence Departmen=
t been prosecuted, please ? The seismologists are 

VERY UNLIKELY to have been patrolling the streets of D'Aquila=
 themselves telling people not to worry 

and to go home ! 

    Have any transcripts of the trial been released=
 yet ? My point is that we do not seem to have any 

firm information yet on who said what to whom and when. 
  =
  I understand from the TV recording that the o=
fficial seismology body in Italy may have been giving 

some dubious 'opinions', but the scope of this lega=
l action against the members seems to be quite 

disproportionate. It could be reasonable to prosecute the head of a committ=
ee if he has failed to carry 

out his duties, or has done them corruptly. 

    However, the nominally controv=
ersial 2008 statement by Professor Boschi that there was no risk to 

a gas storage project at Mirandola from foreseeable earthquakes could well be correct. Gas s=
torage 

may be done in porous, dome shaped=
 rock formations many hundreds of metres underground which 

are capped by impervious rock. So long as a fault line does not intersect this dome, it should not be 

damaged by quakes, even ones which may flatten local build=
ings. 

    Explaining this to the general=
 public may be a bit more difficult. =

     You say "=
He (Boschi) said all measurement was made and no danger was expected for that area 

EVEN IF A MAJOR QUAKE COULD OCCUR". Now a major quake would certainly be ex=
pected to 

damage buildings, so the statement clearly refers to the g=
as storage dome underground.

    In May 2012 there was a m=
ajor quake resulting in thousands of damaged houses and >10 fatalities.<=
/font>
I have not heard of any update =
on this.
     I will be very intere=
sted to hear the result of the appeal against the prosecution. The logic of=
 this conviction  

escapes me. I doubt if Mauro's arguments can be upheld. 


    Regar=
ds,


    Chris Chapman


Il 22/10/2012 22:23, Antonio Moura ha scritto:
> I totally agree with Steinar. I am think that part of what is essentia=
l
> is to strive to make clear of what really is the probabilistic nature
> and the uncertainty associated with such natural phenomena. Lawyers an=
d
> judges and general public sometimes have a great lack of knowledge in
> Scientific matters and the little science they can grasp is of a
> Deterministic, 2+2=3D4, nature. In Portugal two Scientists published a=
n
> interesting book called "How to Talk to Reporters without being on the
> Verge of a Nervous Breakdown" ... I think this also should apply to
> lawyers and such "species" alike  .. However I did not expect this typ=
e
> of judgement from a country with such a tradition in seismology and
> science. I guess that having an "escape goat" in certain troubled time=
s
> must speak higher.
>
> Rui Moura