Hi Chris
hi all,

 >Could you check up on the number and magnitudes
>of quakes experienced within say 40 km
 >of L'Aquila in the past200 years, please ?

 From middle italy to north the maximum expected
magnitude is 6.0, from middle italy
(where i am) to south the maximum expected
magnitude increses up to 7.5; we have
VERY LARGE catalogues of hystorical EQ back to
before the Romans.
Seismologists can benefit of this large database.
You can find an interactive database here:

http://www.emidius.eu/AHEAD/

and here

http://www.mi.ingv.it/terremoti-storici/

most of the pages are in Italian but
i guess are useable since many of data are just
numbers.

>I know that some parts of Italy are
>uch more  seismically active than
>others, but I have no knowledge of
> quakes in this particular area.
>Have  there ANY previous examples of
>a swarm of moderate level quakes
>being followed by major quake ?

I should prepare a paper on this
or find one. But it is a well known
effect for Italy that ALL major EQ
was preceeded by swarms of low-moderate
quakes.

>I just can't see us EVER having
>a similar problem here in the UK  !
>If I was worried about quakes and
>decided to camp out away from any
>buildings, or to leave the area,
>but was told by a Defence Department
>Official that therewas no danger
>and that I should go home,
>I would politely thank him for
>his kind advice and then ignore it.

In Italy people are often scared by
officier. They threat you telling
you will be persecuted if you don't obey.
TV in Italy created a DUMMY generation.
60% of people have very low cultural level.

>Now, there is NO SCIENTIFIC EVIDENCE
>that major earthquakes can be
>predicted at anyparticular time,

I am agree.

>in spite of very considerable efforts
>having been made  to predict them,
>so the opinion that there was
>NO SIGNIFICANT DANGER seems to
>have been PERFECTLY CORRECT.

I am not agree.
It is formally correct.
Not practically.
If you are experiencing two weeks
of coffing, there is
NO SIGNIFICANT DANGER you are
affected by pneumonia.
But if you had pneumonia in past
and if your doctor says:
"go home... don't worry..."
and you die during the night.
Your wife will bring surely
the doctor to the court.

>You may have a geological fault
>line which has historically failed
>every 50 years 'on average',
>but you CAN'T predict the day,
>the week or the year when this will happen.

I am agree.
Nor you can predict there will
be NOT an EQ at any time.
So people have to be left free to
do what they want.
It happened people was informed
and convinced, sometime forced to
go back home.

>In largely protestant countries,
>we don't tend to believe the myth
>that ANYONE is INFALLABLE !

I am agree!
But Italy is not protestant.
And here ALL people believe that
who have a white dress is infallable.
It may be a pope, as well as a doctor,
as well as a scientist.
And, pay attention, this happen
in both sense:

a) people believe white dress are
infallable

b) white dressed people want that
you believe you are infallable
regardless the white dressed
people is a pope, a doctor,
a scientist.

It is just a question of power!
It is a question of opportunism.
Everybody want to get some money
from its position.

>What is the 'chain of command'
>and relationship of authority
>between the various Italian departments
>involved, please ?

The CGR (Great Risks Committee)
is under the directive of its president.
It is a committee of the DPC (Department
of Civil Defense).
I don't know all the details.
Italy is always very interconnected.
Especially with the politicians.

> I would have expected the
>seismologists to have been an
>advisory committee and the Defence
>Department to have been responsible
>fortaking decisions and interacting
>with the public.

>Have any members of the Defence
>Department been prosecuted, please ?

Yes, of course.
All people prosecuted was formally
or informally members of the DPC
(Departement of Civil Defense).
One was the president of the DPC
(Doc. Mauro Dolce).

>The seismologists are VERY UNLIKELY
>to have been patrolling the
>streets of D'Aquila themselves
>telling people not to worry
>and to go home !

No, Of course ...
But patrolling people was
instructed and obeyed orders.

>Have any transcripts of the trial
 >been released yet ?

Not at moment.
All are waiting for the court to
disclose the reasons of the sentence.

>My point is that we do not
>seem to have any  firm information yet
>on who said what to whom and when.

Well, the court examined the
witnessing of more than 250
eyewitnesses!

>I understand from the TV recording
>that the official seismology body
>in Italy may have been giving
>some  dubious 'opinions',
>but the scope of this legal action
>against the members seems to be quite
>disproportionate. It could be

I am agree. Six years of prison
for everybody is exaggerated.
Surely different responsability
are for different people and roles
among the committee.

>reasonable to prosecute the head
>of a committee if he has failed
>to carry out his duties,
>or has done them corruptly.

Definitely.

>You say "He (Boschi) said all
>measurement was made and no
>danger was expected for that area
>EVEN IF A MAJOR QUAKE COULD OCCUR".

The opportunity to make gas storage
in that area is not related to my
considerations.
I just brought that video at your
attention because it shows how
often some italian scientists
talk to italian people.
They are self confident, proud and
arrogant. White dressed.
In that occasion the professor
clearly said that area was NOT in
risk of a dangerous earthquake.
Which it was simply false.
To verify it just search in
the hystorical database.

The reason of what he said is
explained by the fact he talked to
people with a politician at side.

>In May 2012 there was a major quake
>resulting in thousands of damaged
>houses and 10 fatalities.
>I have not heard of any update on this.
>I will be very interested to
>hear the result of the appeal
>against the prosecution.
>The logic of this conviction escapes me.

The logic of this prosecution is
to "invite" politicians and scientists
to be less self confident, more honest,
less corrupted, and more clear when talk
to people.
Judges don't want an EQ forecast.
They just want respect for the people.

best regards

-- 
Mauro Mariotti
http://www.infoeq.it
http://www.sara.pg.it

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