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Subject: [Fwd: Response to Turkish EQ forecasts (fwd)]
From: Edward Cranswick cranswick@........
Date: Sat, 11 Dec 1999 02:37:08 +0000




--
Edward Cranswick   US Geological Survey   Golden, CO 80401 USA
TEL: 303-273-8609 FAX: 303-273-8600
--------------------------------------------------------------
Kocaeli Earthquake
Kandilli Observatory
Istanbul, Turkey

Mary Ann-
    A week ago, last Saturday (4 Dec), I spent the night in one of the tents that
had been erected in the heavily damaged village of Golyaga, Turkey, to house
people who either had their homes destroyed by the 17 Aug M7.4 and/or the 12 Nov
M7.1 earthquakes or who were too frightened to sleep in their still-standing
residences for fear of more large aftershocks or earthquakes. Golyaga is a village
with a population of several thousand in the countryside where people are still
self-reliant and can get by in the short term with the relatively low-tech
lifestyle they learned from their parents. By contrast, Istanbul, Turkey, is a
modern/ancient city with a population 14 million which like LA barely functions in
the best of times in terms of traffic, servics, smog, etc. Istanbul suffered only
a thousand deaths from the 17 Aug M7.4 event, mostly in its western suburbs
, but the prospect of an M7+ event on one of
the adjacent faults -- at a distance of 20-30 km instead of 50-200 km, the
distance of the 17 Aug event -- is simply horrific. What both the residents of
Golyaga and Istanbul share is the sense that their lives are on hold . . . either
until their worst fears are realized and the Big One happens or until the
earthquakes stop . . .
    So you should ask youself: "How is my website helping these people if it is
only making them more fearful of the terrifying situation in which they now find
themselves". And if it is not helping them, why are you presenting it at all?
First of all, its contents are poorly described and they very deceptive. such as
the prediction in red of an earthquake in the Turkey region with a magnitude of
5.5-8 . An M5.5 earthquake in the region and time period you define is not
unlikely; but an M8 is highly unlikely. The diifference in consequences is
comparable to the difference between a child scraping her knee on the playground
and being hit by a Mack truck.
    Furthermore, in view of the living situations I have seen both in Turkey and
in Armenia following the 7 Dec 1988 M6.9 Spitak Earthquake, your suggestion below
that a "town crier" would be an effective way of warning people 30 s before
impending strong ground motion is absurd. In Armenia, I saw the school books,
covered with cartoon-character stick-ons, that were mixed with the gasmasks used
by those who removed the bodies a few days later from the rubble of the building
that collapsed in front of the mothers who had arrived at lunch time bringing
lunches to their children at 11:30 AM just in time to hear the screams and witness
the destruction of the rural village grammar school that no one enter because of
the continuing ferocity of the shaking caused by the mainshock and immediate
aftershocks. As Professor Mustafa Erdik, Kandilli Observatory, Istanbul
 has emphasized, it is much
more important to live and work in structures that can withstand the effects of
earthquakes than to try to use predictions to try to run away from their
consequences.
    My advice is that you should take a break from the virtuality of the Web for a
couple of months and come live in the epicentral areas of Turkey -- and see if you
are helped by the wisdom of your of priorities.
-Edward

Ali Pinar wrote:

> ---------- Forwarded message ----------
> Date: Thu, 9 Dec 1999 14:09:34 EST
> From: Eqks@.......
> To: pinara@...........
> Subject: Re: Response to Turkish EQ forecasts
>
> Dear Mr. Pinar:
>
> Thank you for writing to me and I apologize that my response has taken so
> long.  I have received the same questions from many people and have created
> this letter which answers most, if not all, of your questions.
>
> Who does the Earthquake Forecasts
> I do the earthquake forecasts personally and I post and maintain the web site.
>
> Who Am I
> Mary Ann Slaby
> B.A. U.C.B.
> Forecaster & Producer: http://www.earthquakeforecast.com
> Paper: Novel Formation of the Solar System Amplifies Oxygen and Water
> Abundance and Allows Detection of 4.5BY Primordial Respiration will be
> presented in Poster Session at American Geophysical Union Meetings in San
> Francisco 12/15/99
>
> The Earthquake Forecast
> The forecast is for one or more earthquakes in the region of Turkey in the
> range of 5.5 to 8.0 on the open Richter Scale between the dates of 12/4/99
> through 12/18/99.
>
> What is "Region of Turkey"
> Turkey is 30-40 E. longitude, 40-30 N. latitude. The Region of Turkey in the
> earthquake forecast is for 10-70 E. longitude, 70-0 N. latitude.
>
> Method of Prediction
> The method that I use to forecast earthquakes is proprietary.
>
> Earthquake Location
> Turkey is listed as the location because the background quakes have exceeded
> a baseline.
>
> Earthquake Reference
> The earthquake forecast is documented from data obtained at the Kandilli
> Observatory & Earthquake Research Institute and/or the USGS.
>
> What to do in the event of a Earthquake
> The following method of  action will cut the death toll from any major quake
> by approximately 50%-75%.  Organize, instruct, train and  time (with a stop
> watch) your community.  Purchase a loud shreiking siren, which can be heard
> all over the community, and employ a town crier who does nothing but listen
> for a quake to begin and sounds this alarm.
>
> Most people die in a quake from the buildings which  collapse; remember
> 17,000-40,000 people died under these conditions.  It takes about 30 seconds
> for a building to collapse.  Your employed town crier should be able to sound
> the alarm within 1-2 seconds of the start of the quake.   In small rural
> areas where the buildings are only one or two stories high, you should be
> able to rouse people from deep sleep or alert children in school or what ever
> within 5 seconds.  The person should grab a baby and get out of the building
> within 10-15 seconds.  This leaves 5-8 seconds before the building collapses.
>
> This method will work very well in rural areas.
>
> Fear and Negative Impact
> Yes, be scared.  The most beautiful places in the world have earthquakes. You
> can be scared and die in an earthquake, car accident, flood or tornado.  OR,
> you can expect a quake (especially if you live in an earthquake prone area),
> plan a method of surviving the quake and have a decent chance of  living
> through it with little or no injury.
>
> Value of the Earthquake Prediction/Forecast
> The time and magnitude earthquake predictions which I put in the forecasts
> are about 90-95% accurate.  Location is less accurate because I need funding
> to purchase certain equipment.  This is the best that I could do with what I
> have to work with. With no forecast, you do not have a much of chance; with a
> prediction, there is the possibility of getting out alive and with no or
> little injury.  A incorrect prediction, still allows one to practice and make
> sure their reaction time is within the 20 seconds required to get out of the
> building before it collapses.  It will help on future quakes.
>
> Funding and Support
> Donations of money are never refused and will be used to purchase equipment
> and work time on the problem.
>
> Very truly yours,
> Mary Ann Slaby
> Eqks@.......
>
> SITE:
> http://www.earthquakeforecast.com

--
Edward Cranswick   US Geological Survey   Golden, CO 80401 USA
TEL: 303-273-8609 FAX: 303-273-8600
--------------------------------------------------------------
Kocaeli Earthquake
Kandilli Observatory
Istanbul, Turkey



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Larry Cochrane <cochrane@..............>