Edward,

I think your letter is very much to the point. Even though the "forecast"
is painted with a HUGH brush (M 5.5 to 8.0!), over a hugh area (Turkey),
so is most likely to be "fulfilled" (at the 5.5 magnitude level) because 
of the naturally high earthquake occurrence in the area, invoking panic 
as a planned response (as the "forecast" suggests) ranges from primitive 
to just stupid. I find it curious that the basis for the "forecast" is 
that the "background quakes have exceeded a baseline": well DUH! ; didn't 
they just have a series of major quakes with their expected aftershock 
sequences? Now what determines the "background" vs the "baseline"?

This is somewhat reminiscent of the I. Browning "prediction" of several 
years ago for New Madrid that cost us lots of lost productivity for 
doing science, and resulted in nothing more than Dan Rather having to 
spend a night in a Missouri Bootheel Motel and Roses' bar and grill in 
New Madrid town making enough money off feeding the press to afford a 
new roof.

As you have pointed out, the proper response to an increased awareness
of earthquake hazard in an area is better ( = enforced) building codes
and a major increase in monitoring instrumentation and the scientific/
engineering infrastructure to maintain it. As you observe, we need to
be able to assure the population that they can live with earthquakes
because our structures won't fall down around them rather than making
"forecasts" that only aggravate the hopeless fear that already prevails.

Regards,
Sean-Thomas Morrissey
St. Louis University

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